基于人口集聚视角的人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响

The Effect of Demographic Change on Labor Income Share Based on the Perspective of Population Agglomeration

劳动收入份额作为国民收入分配环节中的重要问题,关系到初次分配的公平程度和经济发展质量。威廉姆森假说表明适度的人口集聚可以促进经济发展,但过度集聚反而会导致人口结构恶化,抑制劳动收入份额增长。为探究中国人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响,创新性地以人口集聚为切入点,采用世代交叠模型进行理论机制分析的同时,结合中介效应和门槛效应模型对中国30个省份(除西藏、港澳台外)2000—2017年的数据进行实证检验,以探究人口自然变动、迁移变动和结构变动对劳动收入份额的作用是否会受人口集聚效应的影响,以及沿海与内陆地区变动规律的差异。研究表明:人口变动过程中存在人口集聚的中介效应和门槛效应;人口自然增长可以促进劳动收入份额增长,但人口密度高于门槛值时促进作用明显减弱;人口净迁入对劳动收入份额的影响呈倒U型,人口密度高于门槛值时促进作用转为抑制作用;老年抚养比提升会抑制劳动收入份额增长;沿海和内陆地区劳动收入份额变动规律一致,但沿海地区人口集聚的门槛效应更加明显。从人口变动视角出发,有助于为中国统筹提升各地劳动收入份额,完善收入分配政策提供理论依据与建议。

As an important issue in the process of national income distribution,the share of labor income is related to the fairness of the initial distribution and the quality of economic development.Williamson’s hypothesis suggests that,moderate population agglomeration can promote economic development,but excessive agglomeration can lead to demographic deterioration and inhibit the growth of labor income share.Overlapping Generations Model is used for theoretical analysis.Mediating effect model and threshold effect model are used for empirical test.Based on data modeling of 30 provinces in China(except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2000 to 2017,this paper explores the impact of natural changes,migration changes and structural changes of China’s population on labor income share,and the difference between coastal and inland areas.The results show that:(1)There is a threshold effect of natural population growth on labor income share,and when population density is higher than the threshold,the promoting effect is obviously weakened.(2)The effect of net migration on the labor income share shows an“inverted U”shape.When the population density is above the threshold,the effect of net migration changes from promoting to inhibiting the growth of the labor income share.(3)The inhibiting effect of old-age dependency ratio on labor income share is non-linear.(4)Coastal and inland areas have similar patterns of change.The population carrying capacity of coastal areas is stronger,and the threshold effect of its population density is more obvious.