中国共同富裕逻辑、测度、时空动态及收敛研究

The Logic, Measurement, Temporal and Spatial Dynamics and Convergence of China’s Common Prosperity

共同富裕是中国特色社会主义事业的本质要求,是中国实现现代化的重要特征。自党的十八大以来,党中央对共同富裕理论作出新的阐释,对实现共同富裕目标作出新的部署,阐明共同富裕是全体人民的共同富裕,不是少数人的富裕。在党的不断探索下,实现共同富裕不再只是一种美好愿望,作为我们党的奋斗目标其具有坚实的理论和实践基础。为探索新时代下中国共同富裕的实质水平,基于2005~2020年的有关数据,从富裕性和共享性两大维度,构建由30个指标组成的中国共同富裕综合评价指标体系,首先采用熵权TOPSIS法测度我国30个省份的共同富裕水平并将其划分为中东西及东北四个区域,接着利用基尼分解分析我国共同富裕的主要差异来源,再运用Kernal核密度估计对其动态分布演进趋势进行分析,然后结合Markov转移概率矩阵预测共同富裕趋势变化,最后利用收敛模型验证其收敛性。研究结果发现,2005~2020年我国共同富裕水平整体呈现增长态势,东部地区共同富裕水平远超全国整体共同富裕平均水平,中部、西部及东北区域共同富裕水平均在全国平均水平之下;考察期内,我国共同富裕水平差异主要来源于区域间差异,且区域间差异趋于缩小;样本期内,中国共同富裕水平总体向上转移的概率高于向下转移的概率,共同富裕水平在提升;在地理权重矩阵下,全国及四大区域共同富裕水平存在α收敛和空间β收敛。基于实证分析结果,我国共同富裕发展应重视各区域内部层面共同富裕的均衡性,重点关注各区域内发展相对落后的省份,引领省域间的合作交流,加大资源互通,带动落后地区的均衡发展;促进区域间层面的共同富裕水平的协调发展,打破资源壁垒,引导要素资源的互利互通,以联动发展形式引领其余区域经济发展,从而逐步提升共同富裕水平;立足区域比较优势,施行因地制宜的区域发展战略,促进富裕水平总体提升,要深化区域合作,推动市场一体化,促进区域协调发展。

Common prosperity is the essential requirement of the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics and an important feature of China’s modernization. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has made a new interpretation of the theory of common prosperity and made new arrangements for the realization of the goal of common prosperity. With the Party’s constant exploration, achieving common prosperity is no longer a good wish, but a solid theoretical and practical foundation. In order to explore the substantive level of China’s common prosperity in the new era, based on the relevant data from 2005 to 2020, from the two dimensions of affluence and sharing, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of China’s common prosperity consisting of 30 indicators. First, entropy is used. The TOPSIS method measures the common wealth level of 30 provinces in China and four regions are divided: the middle, east, west and northeast. Then, the Gini decomposition is used to analyze the main sources of differences in China’s common wealth, and the kernel density is used to estimate the evolution trend of its dynamic distribution. The analysis is carried out,and then the Markov transition probability matrix is used to predict the change of the common wealth trend,and finally the convergence model is used to verify its convergence. The results of the study find out the overall level of common prosperity in China shows an increasing trend from 2005 to 2020. The level of common prosperity in the eastern region far exceeds the national average level of common prosperity, while the level of common prosperity in the central, western and northeastern regions is below the national average.Within the sample period, the difference in the level of common prosperity in China mainly comes from differences between regions, and the differences between regions tend to shrink. During the sample period, the probability of China’s common prosperity level shifting upward is generally higher than the probability of shifting downward, and the level of common prosperity is increasing. Under the geographic weight matrix, there are α convergence and spatial β convergence in the common wealth level of the whole country and the four major regions. Based on the empirical analysis results, the development of China’s common prosperity should pay attention to the balance of common prosperity at the internal level of each region, focus on the relatively backward provinces in each region, lead the cooperation and exchanges between provinces, increase the exchange of resources, and promote the balanced development of backward regions. It is also suggested to promote the coordinated development of the level of common prosperity at the inter-regional level, break down resource barriers, guide the mutual benefit and exchange of factor resources, and lead the economic development of other regions in the form of linked development, thereby gradually improving the level of common prosperity. Based on the regional comparative advantages, we should implement a regional development strategy of adapting measures to local conditions and promote the overall improvement of prosperity. We should deepen regional cooperation, promote market integration and promote coordinated regional development.