人口集聚与产业结构高级化:孰先孰后

Population Agglomeration and Industrial Structure Upgrading:Which Comes First

长期以来,是“以产聚人”还是“以人定产”,成为不同地区城镇化发展面临的战略抉择难题。本文基于2010—2019年中国253个地级市样本,采用差分GMM模型和中介效应模型检验了人口集聚、产业结构高级化对区域经济增长的影响,回应了不同地区不同发展阶段“以产聚人”与“以人定产”发展模式选择之争。结果表明:人口集聚对东、西部地区的经济增长均有显著的促进作用,但对中部地区的经济增长作用不明显,其促进作用表现为东部地区>西部地区>中部地区;产业结构高级化对东、中、西部地区的经济增长均有显著的促进作用,其促进作用表现为中部地区>东部地区>西部地区。总体而言,人口集聚和产业结构高级化均对区域经济存在一定增长惯性,两者在不同地区和不同发展阶段的作用效果也存在较大差异:东部地区策的略选择是建立人口集聚与产业结构高级化良性互动来加快区域经济的高质量发展;中部地区则优先推动产业结构高级化,加快推进劳动密集型向技术密集型产业的结构转型,以此形成人口收缩趋势下的经济增长新旧动能转换;而西部地区的主要通过吸引人口回流并承接东部地区产业转移来促进新型城镇化的快速发展,进而持续推进区域经济高质量发展。为此,不同地区需要结合资源禀赋,因地制宜地选择“以产聚人”还是“以人定产”的发展模式,并统筹协调实现区域经济的高质量均衡发展。

For a long time,"gathering people by industry"or"determining production by people"has become a difficult strategic choice for the development of urbanization in different regions.Based on the sample of 253 prefecture level cities in China from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses the differential GMM model and the intermediary effect model to test the impact of population agglomeration and the upgrading of industrial structure on regional economic growth,and responds to the dispute between the development model of"gather personnel by industry"and"determine industry by personnel"in different regions and different development stages.The results show that the population agglomeration has a significant role in promoting the economic growth of the eastern and western regions,but it has no obvious role in promoting the economic growth of the central region.Its promoting effect is shown as the eastern region>the western region>the central region;the upgrading of industrial structure can remarkably promote the economic growth of the eastern,central and western regions,which is shown as the central region>the eastern region>the western region.Overall,both population agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading have certain growth inertia on regional economy,and their effects in different regions and different development stages are also quite different:The strategic choice of the eastern region is to establish a high-level and good interaction between population agglomeration and industrial structure to accelerate the high-quality development of regional economy;the central region should give priority to promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and accelerate the structural transformation from labor-intensive to technology intensive industries,so as to form the transformation of new and old drivers of economic growth under the trend of population contraction;the western region mainly promotes the rapid development of new urbanization by attracting population return and undertaking indust.