河南地区降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射的关系

Relationship of Surface Solar Shortwave Radiation with Precipitation and Cloud Cover in Henan Province

对河南省2009~2018年地面太阳短波辐射量与降水量和云量的关系进行了分析,结果表明,地面太阳短波辐射量与降水量、云量具有显著的负相关关系,但在不同季节其相关关系差异较大。为了定量表征三者之间的关系,基于多年再分析资料,利用降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射量的关系对日辐射量进行拟合,并对拟合后的日辐射量进行检验。验证结果显示,此考虑季节性变化的回归模型对河南省地面太阳短波辐射有较好的拟合能力,可以作为基于气象预报的日辐射量短期变化评估基础,为光伏发电量的短期预报提供参考。

The relationship of Solar Shortwave Radiation Downwards(SSRD)with Total PREcipitation(TPRE)and Total Cloud Cover(TCC)in Henan Province from 2009 to 2018 was analyzed.Results showed that the SSRD in Henan Province has a significant negatively correlation with TPRE and TCC,but the correlation varies in different seasons.In order to quantitatively characterize the relationship among them,the daily SSRD is fitted using TPRE and TCC based on reanalysis data,and the fitted SSRD has been tested.This multiple linear regression model considering seasonal variation of TPRE and TCC shows a good fitting ability for SSRD in Henan Province.These results can be used as a basis for assessing short-term changes in SSRD based on weather forecasts and provide a reference for short-term forecasts of photovoltaic generation.