大沽河入海径流演化特征及其影响因素研究

Study on evolution characteristics of Dagu River runoff into sea and influencing factors

为揭示胶东半岛大沽河入海径流量演化特征及其主要驱动因素,采用Mann-Kendall法与改进Mann-Kendall法、累积距平法与滑动t检验法、Morlet复小波变换等研究了1956~2016年大沽河入海径流量及其变化趋势、突变特征与变化周期;采用降水-径流双累积曲线法,定量计算了气候变化与人类活动对大沽河入海径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:大沽河入海径流量呈显著减少趋势,平均减少速率为0.158 5亿m/a, 1976年发生了由多到少的突变,变化的主周期为21 a;导致径流量减少的主要影响因素为人类活动,大规模水资源开发活动改变了流域水资源转化过程。研究成果可为胶州湾水资源开发利用保护和生态环境评价提供参考。

In order to reveal the evolution characteristics of Dagu River runoff into sea and the main driving factors, Mann-Kendall test and modified Mann-Kendall test, the cumulative departure method and Moving t-test, Morlet continuous complex wavelet analysis were employed to study the Dagu River runoff during 1956 to 2016 and its changing trend, mutation characteristics and variation period.The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the change of Dagu River runoff were quantitatively calculated by using the rainfall-runoff double cumulative curve.The results showed that the Dagu River runoff showed a significant decreasing trend, with an average decrease rate of 15.85 million m~3/a.In 1976,a sudden change occurred from more to less, and the main period of change was 21 years.Human activities were the main factor leading to the reduction of Dagu River runoff, and large-scale water resources development activities have changed the process of water resources transformation in the Dagu River Basin.The research results can provide reference for the development, utilization and protection of water resources in Jiaozhou Bay and the evaluation of ecological environment.