基于M-K法与SPI指数的泰安降水量分析

Precipitation Analysis in Tai’an Based on M-K Method and SPI Index

对泰安气象站1984—2016年的实测降水量资料采用线性趋势、累积距平法、M-K突变检验法、SPI指数进行研究分析,发现泰安多年平均降水量呈微小减少的趋势,平均降水量减少的速度约为10.9 mm/10 a。将M-K突变检验法和累积距平法相结合,得出1989、2002、2011年为研究区间的降水量突变年份。另外,分析不同时间尺度的SPI,得出1个月尺度的SPI的正负波动范围较大,随着时间尺度延长,SPI发生干旱的持续时间增长,旱涝变化趋于稳定。对降水量突变点的检验和不同时间尺度的SPI演变分析有助于更好地认识干旱现象,提高防旱抗旱意识,为泰安的降水量预测、水资源管理提供科学参考。

The measured precipitation data of Tai’an meteorological station from 1984 to 2016 are analyzed through linear trend,cumulative anomaly method,M-K mutation test method and SPI index.It is found that the annual average precipita⁃tion in Tai’an showed a slight decreasing trend which was about 10.9mm/10a.By means of M-K mutation test and cumula⁃tive anomaly method,1989,2002 and 2011 are the years of mutation in the study interval.In addition,the analysis of SPI at different time scales shows that the fluctuation range of SPI index at one month scale is larger.With the extension of time scale,the duration of SPI drought increases and the change of drought and flood tends to be stable.The detection of precipi⁃tation abrupt change point and the evolution analysis of SPI index at different time scales are helpful to better understand drought phenomenon,improve the awareness of drought prevention and relief,and provide scientific reference for precipita⁃tion prediction and water resources management in Tai’an.