刍议满意决策与最优情报

Discussion on Satisfactory Decision-making and Optimal Intelligence

情报人员在对决策用户开展情报服务时,往往采用“绝对理性”为指导,按最优化准则刻意追求决策主官的认可,但结果往往事与愿违。因此,有必要重新审视有限理性下令决策主官满意的满意决策与“最优情报”的内涵和问题。基于有限理性和满意解,对最优情报的相关问题进行了分析与探讨,总结并提出了实现满意决策的路径,指出情报的伴生属性决定了情报服务必须要紧扣甚至超越决策主官的决策意图,但情报人员不可能将所有的问题都能考虑到,最终提供的“最优情报”只是在有限理性下的阶段性满意,并非全局性最优。

When intelligence personnel carry out information service to decision-making users,they often take“absolute rationality”as the guidance,and deliberately pursue the approval of decision-making leader according to the optimization criteria,but the results often backfire.Therefore,it is necessary to review the connotations and problem of optimal intelligence that the decision-making leader is satisfied with under the bounded rationality.Based on the bounded rationality and satisfactory solution,this paper analyzes and discusses the related problems of optimal intelligence,summarizes and puts forward the path to realize satisfactory decision-making,and points out that the accompanying attribute of intelligence determines that information service must closely follow or even exceed the decision-making intention of the decision-making leader,and however,it is impossible for intelligence personnel to take all problems into account,and the“optimal intelligence”finally provided is only the periodical satisfaction under the bounded rationality,not global optimization.