中国种植业碳生产率的区域差异及分布动态演进

Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Productivity of China’s Planting Industry

本文基于1998—2018年31个省份的种植业碳生产率,运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计方法和Markov链方法对中国八大综合经济区种植业碳生产率的区域差异及分布动态进行实证考察。研究表明,中国种植业碳生产率整体呈上升态势,但总体区域差异表现出下降—上升—下降的倒“N”型演变趋势,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源,部分经济区存在显著的梯度差异和极化特征;整体上中国种植业碳生产率向高水平方向转移趋势明显,高水平地区种植业碳生产率呈自我强化状态且具有正向的空间溢出效应。因此,中国八大综合经济区种植业碳生产率的提升不仅要把握种植业碳生产率的区域差异及其来源,还要积极利用经济区之间种植业碳生产率的空间溢出效应,以实现中国种植业碳生产率的跨区域协同提升。

Based on the carbon productivity of the planting industry in 31 provinces from 1998 to 2018,this paper uses the Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation method,and Markov chain method to empirically investigate the regional differences and distribution dynamics of carbon productivity of planting industry in eight comprehensive economic zones of China.The result shows that:the overall carbon productivity of China’s planting industry is on the rise,but the overall regional difference shows an inverted“N”trend.The regional difference is the main source of the overall difference,and there are significant gradient differences and polarization characteristics in some economic regions.On the whole,the carbon productivity of China’s planting industry transfers to a high level obviously,and the carbon productivity of the planting industry in high-level areas is-self-reinforcing and has a positive spatial spillover effect.Therefore,to improve the carbon productivity of the planting industry in China’s eight comprehensive economic zones,we should not only grasp the regional differences and sources of carbon productivity of the planting industry but also actively use the spatial spillover effect of carbon productivity of planting industry among economic zones,to realize the cross-regional collaborative improvement of carbon productivity of planting industry in China.