欧洲能源供应格局调整对天然气价格指数联动关系影响浅析

Analysis on the impact of adjustment of European energy supply pattern on the linkage relationship of natural gas price index

国际天然气市场形成了亚洲日韩基准(JKM)、欧洲荷兰TTF和美国亨利枢纽三大价格指数,反映各贸易区域的天然气供需形势。日韩基准价格相对TTF价格的关联系数是0.98,两者季节波动基本一致;亨利枢纽与TTF和日韩基准价格的关联系数分别只有0.61、0.68,且波动系数远小于后两者。根据俄罗斯向欧洲供应天然气的形势变化,假设可能出现的3种情景,讨论欧洲天然气供需与相关能源格局调整的情况。在此基础上,对三大价格指数未来的联动性进行分析,提出亨利枢纽价格指数未来可能与TTF价格增强联动性。中国企业为减少国际LNG价格波动带来的损失风险,一是可以通过长期合同商务条款控制价格风险;二是可以直接参与上游资源投资,确保获得资源的价格稳定性;三是加大LNG运输业务发展力度,掌握LNG贸易主动性。

Such three major price indexes in the international natural gas market as JKM, TTF and Henry Hub price index, reflect the supply and demand situation of natural gas in various trading regions. The correlation coefficient between JKM and TTF is 0.98 and the seasonal fluctuations of the two are basically the same. The correlation coefficient between Henry Hub and JKM and the correlation coefficient between TTF and JKM are only 0.61 and 0.68 respectively, and the volatility coefficient is much smaller than the latter two. This paper according to the changes of Russian gas supply to Europe and assuming three possible scenarios, discusses the adjustment of gas supply and demand and related energy pattern in Europe. On this basis, it analyzes the linkage of future three price indexes, and puts forward that the Henry Hub price index may enhance the linkage with TTF in the future. In order to reduce the loss risk caused by the fluctuation of international LNG price, Chinese enterprises could control the price risk through the commercial terms of gas contract, directly participate in upstream resource investment to ensure the price stability of resources, and develop the LNG transportation business and get the initiative of LNG trade.