中国天然气分布式能源“十四五”前景预测及重点区域分析

Prospect forecast and key area analysis on natural gas distributed energy in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period

天然气分布式能源作为一种新型动能系统和利用方式,具有启停迅速、运行灵活、高效环保、靠近用户的特点,但受天然气价格较高、相关补贴政策不到位等影响,始终未能大规模发展,且区域发展不均衡。随着中国“双碳”目标的推进,能源清洁低碳化转型加速,天然气分布式项目也将迎来黄金发展期。采用定量与定性相结合的分析方法,对全国“十四五”天然气分布式能源装机规模进行预测,按照低、中、高三种情景,到2025年中国天然气分布式能源总装机规模将分别达到3365.5万千瓦、3638.5万千瓦和4025万千瓦,增长近48%~77%。重点区域天然气分布式能源发展潜力排序依次为广东、江苏、山东、浙江、湖北、湖南、河北、海南及福建,其中增量空间最大的广东省到2025年天然气分布式能源将新增装机规模375.8万千瓦。

As a new kinetic energy system and utilization mode,natural gas distributed energy has such characteristics as quick start and stop,flexible operation,high efficiency and environmental protection,and close to users.However,due to the high price of natural gas,the relevant subsidy policies are not in place,the large-scale development has not been achieved and the regional development is unbalanced.With the promotion of China’s“dual-carbon”goal and acceleration of the transformation of clean and low-carbon energy,natural gas distributed project will also usher in golden development period.This paper uses the quantitative and qualitative analysis methods,forecasts the installed capacity of natural gas distributed energy in the 14Five Year Plan period by setting three development scenarios.It shows that the total installed capacity of natural gas distributed energy in China will reach 33.655GW,36.385 GW and 40.25 GW by 2025,an increase of nearly 48% to 77%.Moreover,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shandong,Zhejiang,Hubei,Hunan,Hebei,Hainan,and Fujian are in the order of development potential of distributed natural gas energy in key regions.Guangdong province,the largest incremental space,will add 3.758 GW of installed natural gas distributed energy by 2025.