全球能源格局发展趋势与中国能源安全

Trends in Global Energy Landscape and China’s Energy Security

目前,碳达峰、碳中和目标引发的全球能源转型与乌克兰危机是推动全球能源格局发展演变的两个主导力量。可再生能源的大发展和石油需求峰值的到来将会弱化能源地缘政治属性,资本将流向低成本、低风险的上游油气资产,能源贸易重心将由全球油气市场转向区域性电网,能源出口国地位将遭到削弱,进口国对外能源依赖度将降低,可再生资源技术领先国和关键矿产资源富集国的竞争优势将增强。乌克兰危机将导致油气卖方市场重现、全球能源商品分化为俄与非俄商品、欧洲天然气因供应短缺出现“欧洲溢价”现象、俄罗斯能源份额大幅下降而美国能源优势显著增强。全球能源格局新变动对中国能源安全的影响主要体现在进口成本上升、中美在碳减排和可再生能源产业链上的博弈加剧、中俄能源贸易面临二级制裁风险等方面。

At present,the global energy transition triggered by the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets and the Ukraine crisis are the two leading drivers for the development and evolution of the global energy landscape.Major development of renewable energy and the arrival of peak in oil demand will weaken energy’s geopolitical attributes;capital will flow to low-cost,low-risk upstream oil and gas assets;and the focus of energy trade will shift from the global oil and gas market to regional power grids.Therefore,the status of energy exporters will be weakened,importers will be less dependent on foreign energy,and the competitive advantages of renewable energy technology leaders and key mineral resource-rich countries will be enhanced.The Ukraine crisis will lead to the re-emergence of a seller’s market for oil and gas,the division of global energy into Russian and non-Russian commodities,a "European premium" for natural gas in Europe due to supply shortages,and a significant decline in the share of Russian energy in contrast with a remarkable increase of the U.S.energy advantage.The impact of the new changes in the global energy landscape on China’s energy security is mainly reflected in the rising cost of imports,intensification of the competition between China and the U.S.in the carbon emission reduction and renewable energy industry chain,and the risk of secondary sanctions on China-Russia energy trade.