从伦镍逼仓事件看铜期货外盘保值交易

Analysis of Copper Futures Outside Hedging Transactions from Nickel Squeeze

以青山控股集团遭遇镍期货逼仓事件为背景,从基本面的角度阐述了逼仓事件发生的客观基础,并从交易的角度,说明了价格在预期逻辑和现实逻辑背离下,有可能对公司头寸和公司的稳健经营产生不利影响。铜在外盘的保值无论是频率和规模都远远超过镍的现状,从资金成本的角度,阐明了套期保值的必要性和风险性,得出了套期保值企业要放弃控制市场的思路,把重心放在对全球铜市场供需平衡及其拐点判断,以及市场中现货库存数量和一定美元信用额度下的仓位控制等防风险措施上来,最终在期货市场完成价格发现、减少企业利润波动、防范价格风险的本职任务。

Taking Qingshan Nickel squeeze event as the background,this article expounds the objective basis of Qingshan Nickel squeeze event occurred from the perspective of fundamentals,and from the point of view of the transaction,it shows that the price in the expected logic and realistic logic deviate,may have adverse effects on the company's position and its stable operation.Then the comparison between copper and nickel shows that both the frequency and scale of copper outside hedging are far more than that of nickel.Combining with the perspective of capital cost,it clarifies the necessity and risk of hedging companies to engage in copper hedging.It is concluded that hedging companies should correct their mentality,give up the idea of controlling the market,focus on judging the balance of the supply and demand in the global copper market and its inflection point,as well as the number of spot inventories in the market and position control under a certain dollar credit risk.The measures finally realize the futures market price discovery and reduce variation in the corporate profits,to guard against price risk of his own task.