交通建设项目投资方案智能决策方法研究

Research on the Intelligent Decision-making Method for Investment Plan of Transportation Construction Project

研究目的:现行交通建设项目投资估算办法难以准确反映交通建设项目的复杂性、非线性和全生命周期的特点,本文以西阜高速公路为例,综合运用PSO、BPNN、FIS和BIM三维技术进行交通建设项目全生命周期成本估算和投资方案比选。研究结论:(1)建立交通建设项目投资估算信息资料数据库,为投资方案筛选提供一定的历史数据;(2)结合拟建项目工程特征,采用PSO方法筛选出与其相似的工程案例,基于BP神经网络模型分别预测其建设成本和未来20年运营成本,再用FIS预测其未来21~100年运营成本,结合三部分数据得到全生命周期成本;(3)从经济角度出发,以全生命周期成本最优为决策准则,采用BIM三维技术建立投资方案可视化模型,以便决策者从备选方案中寻优;(4)本研究结论可为交通建设项目投资方案决策提供参考。

Research purposes: The current investment estimation methods for transportation construction projects are difficult to accurately reflect the complexity, nonlinearity and the characteristics of the whole life cycle of transportation construction projects. Taking Xibaipo-Fuping Expressway as an example, this paper comprehensively uses PSO, BPNN, FIS and BIM three-dimensional technology to carry out the whole life cycle cost estimation and investment option comparison of transportation construction project.Research conclusions:(1) The traffic construction project investment estimation information database is established to provide certain historical data for the selection of investment plans.(2) Combining the characteristics of the proposed project, using the PSO method to screen out similar projects, based on BP neural network model, this paper separately predicts its construction cost and operating cost in the next 20 years, and then uses FIS to predict its operating cost in the next 21~100 years, combining three parts of data to obtain the whole life cycle cost.(3) From an economic point of view, with the best life-cycle cost as the decision criterion, BIM three-dimensional technology is used to establish a visual model of the investment plan, so that decision makers can find the best one.(4) The research result can provide a reference for the decision-making of investment plans for transportation construction projects.