基于多点统计的煤田岩溶塌陷预测方法研究

Research on Prediction Method of Coal Field KarstCollapse based on Multi-point Statistics

由于煤田岩溶发育区域地质结构比较复杂,导致岩溶塌陷的因素比较多,传统方法在实际应用中预测结果与实际情况存在较大的出入,准确率较低,因此,对煤田岩溶塌陷区域地质条件进行分析,推理煤田岩溶塌陷形成机理,在此基础上提出基于多点统计的煤田岩溶塌陷预测方法设计。根据煤田岩溶塌陷形成过程,选取地下水潜蚀、崩解、真空吸蚀作为预测因子,利用可控源音频大地电磁法对预测因子数据进行采集,通过对煤田岩溶测量数据进行多点统计分析,估算出岩溶塌陷概率,并预测出煤田岩溶塌陷程度和危险性。经实验证明,设计方法准确率高于传统方法,在煤田岩溶塌陷预测方面具有较高的预测精度。

Due to the complex geological structure of the coalfield karst development area,there are many factors leading to karst collapse.The prediction results of traditional methods in practical applications are quite different from the actual situation,and the accuracy rate is low.Therefore,research on prediction method of coal field karst collapse.The geological conditions of coal field karst collapse area are analyzed,and the formation mechanism of coal field karst collapse is deduced.On this basis,the design of coal field karst collapse prediction method based on multi-point statistics is proposed.According to the formation process of coal field karst collapse,groundwater burial erosion,disintegration,and vacuum absorption are selected as prediction factors,and the data of the prediction factors are collected by the controllable source audio magnetotelluric method.Obtain the probability of karst collapse,and predict the degree and danger of karst collapse in coal fields.Experiments show that the accuracy of the design method is higher than that of the traditional method,and it has a higher prediction accuracy in the prediction of coal karst collapse.