核心—边缘理论视角下的颠覆性技术识别研究

Research on a Method to Identify Disruptive Technologies in the View of Core-periphery Theory

[目的/意义]将核心—边缘理论与专利引文分析相结合,提出识别潜在颠覆性技术的新方法,助力揭示和判断可能发生颠覆效应的技术方向或主题,助力政府和企业优化研发布局、赢得竞争优势。[方法/过程]以2000—2019年间人工智能领域美国授权专利为样本,基于专利和专利科学引文数据分别构建技术加权共现网络和科学知识加权共现网络,并以二者间的引证关系形成关联网络,利用核心—边缘理论构建颠覆性潜力技术节点候选准则,从技术基础性、影响力、突变性三个维度分别采用时序分析方法判定颠覆性技术。[结果/结论]将核心—边缘理论与专利引文分析相结合能有效识别特定技术领域的颠覆性技术,人工智能领域的机器学习、图像识别与处理、AI医疗、自动驾驶等技术具有颠覆性潜力,且这些技术间关联紧密、渗透性强、协同发展趋势明显。

[Purpose/significance]Combining core-periphery theory and patent citation analysis,a new method to identify potential disruptive technologies was proposed to help reveal and judge the technical directions or topics that may have disruptive effects,so as to optimize R&D layout for government and enterprises and win competitive advantage.[Method/process]Taking American authorized patents in the field of artificial intelligence between 2000 and 2019 as samples,based on the patent and scientific references in patent documentation,the technology-weighted and scientific knowledge-weighted co-occurrence network were constructed respectively,and the citation relationship between the two networks was formed.The core-periphery theory was used to design the candidate criteria for disruptive potential technology nodes.The time series analysis method was used to determine the disruptive technology from three dimensions,which were technology foundation,influence and mutation.[Result/conclusion]The results show that combining the core-periphery theory and patent citation analysis can effectively identify disruptive technologies in specific technical fields.Some fields in artificial intelligence,such as machine learning,image recognition and processing,AI medical care,and autonomous driving technologies,have disruptive potentiality.And these technologies are closely related,highly permeable,and have an obvious trend of coordinated development.