地下综合管廊PPP项目风险评价研究

Research on risk assessment of utility tunnel PPP project

进行地下综合管廊PPP项目风险评价对降低风险造成的影响和损失具有重要意义。从社会资本方角度出发,首先对项目风险因素进行识别及确认,构建项目风险评价指标体系;其次运用层次分析法和熵权法分别确定风险因素的主客观权重,利用组合赋权对指标权重进行优化;然后以云理论为基础,建立云模型下的综合管廊PPP项目风险评价模型;最后选取青岛高新区综合管廊PPP项目实际工程作为案例进行分析,最终确定该项目整体风险水平为中等风险,与实际情况相符,针对一级指标中风险等级较为突出的经济风险和建设风险提出具体预防及应对措施。通过结合实例验证了组合赋权-云模型在地下综合管廊PPP项目的适应性。

Risk assessment of PPP project of underground utility tunnel is of great significance to reduce the impact and loss caused by risk.From the perspective of social capital,this paper first identifies and confirms the project risk factors and constructs the project risk evaluation index system.Secondly,AHP and entropy weight method are used to determine the subjective and objective weight of risk factors,and the combination weight is used to optimize the index weight.Then,based on the cloud theory,the risk evaluation model of the utility tunnel PPP project under the cloud model is established.Finally,the actual project of the comprehensive pipe gallery PPP project in Qingdao high tech Zone is selected as a case for analysis,it is determined that the overall risk level of the project is medium risk,which is consistent with the actual situation.Specific prevention and response measures are put forward for the economic risk and construction risk with prominent risk level in the primary indicators.Through an example,the adaptability of the combined weighting cloud model in the PPP project of underground comprehensive pipe gallery is verified,which provides ideas and theories for the follow-up risk management.