2010—2019年中原经济区主体城市经济发展趋势演变

Evolution of economic development trend of main cities in central plains economic zone from 2010—2019

为研究中原经济区主体城市的经济差异,探究城市经济发展规律,以中原经济区30个主体城市为研究单元,基于城市人均GDP数据,采用泰尔指数、标准差椭圆分析、空间自相关和空间马尔科夫模型分析2010—2019年经济区域差异的演变特征。结果表明:中原经济区城市经济的空间差异逐渐缩小,其中,核心区内部差异较辐射区明显。区域经济重心在郑州境内不断向东南转移,椭圆呈现收缩态势。城市经济发展存在显著的空间集聚特征,经济发展高值区(HH类型)主要集聚在中原经济区西部,经济发展低值区(LL类型)主要分布在经济区东南部,而经济发展低高值区(LH类型)主要围绕在高值区附近。中原经济区经济发展呈现趋同现象,多数城市会维持原有的经济类型。在不同邻域环境的影响下,与经济水平较高的城市为邻会增加其向上转移的概率并抑制其向下转移的可能性,反之则会抑制其向上转移的概率。

In order to study the economic differences of the main cities in the Central Plains Economic Zone and explore the laws of urban economic development,the 30 main cities of the Central Plains Economic Zone are taken as the research units,based on the urban per capita GDP data,the Theil coefficient,standard deviation ellipse analysis,spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov model analyzes the evolution characteristics of economic regional differences from 2010 to 2019.The results show that:the spatial difference of urban economy in the Central Plains Economic Zone is gradually narrowing,and the difference within the core area is more obvious than that in the radiation area;the regional economic center of gravity is in Zhengzhou and is constantly shifting to the southeast,and the ellipse shows a shrinking trend;there is a significant spatial agglomeration in urban economic development.Characteristics,the high-value areas of economic development(HH type)are mainly concentrated in the western part of the Central Plains Economic Zone,the low-value areas of economic development(LL type)are mainly distributed in the southeast of the economic zone,and the low-and high-value areas of economic development(LH type)are mainly around.Near the high-value area;the economic development of the Central Plains Economic Zone has shown a phenomenon of convergence,and most cities will maintain the original economic type.Under the influence of different neighborhood environments,being adjacent to a city with a higher economic level will increase the probability of its upward transfer and inhibit its downward transfer probability,otherwise it will inhibit its upward transfer probability.