Prediction of the Behavior of a Power System Using Root Cause Failure Analysis

The thermo-economic performance of a gas turbine is simulated using a fish bone technique to characterize the major equipment failure causes.Moreover a fault tree analysis and a Pareto technique are implemented to identify the related failure modes,and the percentage and frequency of failures,respectively.A pump 101 and drier 301 belonging to the Tabriz Petrochemical Company are considered for such analysis,which is complemented with a regression method to determine a behavioral model of this equipment over a twenty-year period.Research findings indicate that 81%of major failure factors in production equipment are related to the executive procedures(24%),human error(22%),poor quality of materials and parts(20%),and lack of personnel training(15%).