以大数据俘获理性:“数据—知识—决策”框架下的公共决策理性增长逻辑

Capturing Rationality with Big Data:Rational Reconstruction Logic of Public Decisions under the "Data-Knowledge-Decision" Model

基于知识的理性决策原则构成现代公共决策的基本取向。哪些要素制约了决策理性,又如何拓展决策理性,成为公共决策研究的焦点问题。本文尝试在大数据背景下对这一问题进行理论解析。基于认知金字塔模型和决策过程理论,构建了“数据—知识—决策”理性决策分析框架,并分别将小数据和大数据两种不同的数据观和方法论嵌入其中,型构决策理性受限和增长两种不同的决策模式。研究发现,在小数据时代,受制于数据稀缺条件的决策者在决策事实感知、决策价值整合、决策规律发现上存在重大认知偏差,无法有效突破有限理性的决策困境。而大数据技术、资源和方法的出现给决策者提供了数据密集的新条件,既能改变决策者依据的数据与事实基础,也能纠正公共决策的价值信号与因果规律的偏差,促进公共决策问题精准界定、决策科学规划、决策智能优化的决策新范式生成。

Rationality and knowledge is the core principle of modern public decision-making.What restricts decision-making rationality and how to expand decision-making rationality is the big question for public decision-making research.This study attempts to theoretically analyze and construct this problem in the context of big data.Based on the cognitive pyramid model and the decision-making process theory,a rational decision-making framework of "data-knowledge-decision" is constructed,and two different data views and methodologies of small data and big data are embedded in it respectively to demonstrate the constraints and growth of decision rationality.The study found that in the era of small data,decision-makers subject to data scarcity conditions have significant cognitive biases in decision-making fact perception,decision-making value integration,and decision-making law discovery,and cannot effectively break through the decision-making dilemma of limited rationality.The emergence of big data technologies,resources and methods has provided decision makers with new data-intensive conditions,which can not only change the data and factual basis of decision makers,but also correct the deviation between the value signal of public decision-making and the causal law,and promote public decision-making.A new paradigm of decision-making with precise problem definition,scientific decision-making planning,and intelligent decision-making optimization is generated.