制造业与物流业协同集聚形成与演化条件研究

Study on Formation and Evolution Conditions of Co-agglomeration between Manufacturing Industry and Logistics Industry

制造业与物流业协同集聚是两业协调联动、融合发展在空间上的主要表现形式,也是检验两业联动与融合发展是否有效的一个标准。传统新经济地理学模型在物流成本外生给定情况下,两业协同集聚形成条件描述模糊且难以量化。将物流部门作为独立部门引入到集聚模型中,通过产业关联构建物流业平均可变成本与制造业集聚程度的联动关系,实现物流成本内生化处理。根据区域制造业集聚程度和两业集聚可能出现的形态,求解物流企业平均可变成本取值,得到物流成本内生情况下物流业与制造业协同集聚的形成与演化条件范围。通过理论推导和数值模拟发现:一个地区制造业与物流业协同集聚的形成受到物流平均可变成本2个门槛值的影响,且该地区制造业集聚程度越高,2个行业互补性集聚的门槛区间越大,产生挤出性集聚的门槛区间越小;当物流平均可变成本处于2个门槛值区间时,物流业与制造业协同集聚程度与该地区制造业集聚呈正U型关系,否则呈倒U型关系。该研究有利于把握制造业与物流业协同集聚形成与演化的一般规律,为推动两业深度融合、保障产业链供应链稳定与经济高质量发展提供理论支撑。

The co-agglomeration between manufacturing industry and logistics industry is the main spatial manifestation of the coordinated linkage and integrated development of the 2 industries, it is also a standard to test whether the linkage and integrated development of the 2 industries is effective. In the traditional new economic geography model, when the logistics cost is exogenous, the description of the formation conditions of the 2 industries’ co-agglomeration is vague and difficult to quantify. The logistics sector is introduced into the agglomeration model as an independent sector, the linkage relationship between the average variable cost of logistics industry and the agglomeration degree of manufacturing industry is established by industrial correlation, and the endogenous treatment of logistics cost is realized. According to the agglomeration degree of regional manufacturing industry and the possible forms of 2 industries’ agglomeration, the average variable cost of logistics enterprises is solved, and the formation and evolution condition range of co-agglomeration of logistics industry and manufacturing industry under the condition of endogenous logistics cost are obtained. Through theoretical derivation and numerical simulation, it is found that(1) the formation of co-agglomeration of manufacturing industry and logistics industry in a region is affected by 2 thresholds of logistics average variable cost, the higher the agglomeration degree of manufacturing industry in the region, the greater the interval width of the 2 thresholds for complementary agglomeration of these industries, and the smaller interval width of the thresholds for extruding agglomeration;(2) when the logistics average variable cost is in the range between 2 thresholds, the co-agglomeration degree between logistics industry and manufacturing industry has a positive U-shaped relationship with the agglomeration degree of manufacturing industry in the region, otherwise it has an inverted U-shaped relationship. This study is helpful to grasp the general rules of the formation and evolution of the co-agglomeration of manufacturing industry and logistics industry. It provides a theoretical support for promoting the deep integration of the 2 industries, ensuring the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain and high-quality economic development.