元宇宙之路的近虑与远忧——基于用户视角的需求-行为分析

Concerns about the Long-Term and Short-Term Road of the Metaverse——Demand-Behavior Analysis Based on Users′ Perspective

无论怎么定义元宇宙,对它的发展走向及影响的研究,离不开对用户近期及远期需求和行为的分析,我们需要从用户角度思考元宇宙之路的近虑与远忧。从人的“生理带宽”角度来看,元宇宙中的各类应用如何争夺人们有限的时间和注意力是一个当下挑战,但未来我们则要担心元宇宙应用占据了过多的“生理带宽”。从社交角度看,元宇宙应用能否呼应社交需求摇摆的节奏,能否帮助用户实现连接与反连接之间的平衡,既关乎它自身的发展空间,也关乎人的社交质量甚至生存质量。从化身角度看,元宇宙应用将进一步推动人的化身实践与化身满足,但由此也会带来化身管理负担、虚拟自我与现实自我的冲突等问题。从体验角度看,元宇宙相关技术将带来沉浸式的感官体验,也会增加人们在新体验中的沉迷,沉浸式体验是否会成为一个将人吞噬的“黑洞”,这不仅影响元宇宙的未来,也影响人类的未来。

No matter how we define the Metaverse,the research on its development trend and impact cannot be separated from the analysis of users’ short-term and long-term needs and behaviors.We need to think about the near and far worries of the Metaverse from the perspective of the users.From the perspective of human “physiological bandwidth”,how various applications in the Metaverse compete for people’s limited time and attention is a current challenge,but in the future,we have to worry that Metaverse applications occupy too much “physiological bandwidth”.From a social perspective,whether the Metaverse application can respond to the swing rhythm of social needs,and help users achieve a balance between the connection and the anticonnection is not only related to its own development space,but also related to people’s social quality and even quality of life.From the perspective of the avatar,the application of Metaverse will further promote people’s avatar practice and avatar satisfaction,but it will also bring about problems such as the burden of avatar management,the confiict between virtual self and real self.From the perspective of experience,the relevant technologies of the Metaverse will bring immersive sensory experience and increase people’s addiction to new experiences.Whether the immersive experience will become a “black hole” that will devour people not only affect the future of the Metaverse,but also affect the future of mankind.