公共服务供给对流动人口的“挤出效应”与“选择效应”——基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据的分析

the“Crowding-out Effect” and “Selection Effect” of the Supply of Public Services on the Floating Population——Based on the Analysis of the National Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Data in 2017

基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,分析了公共服务供给、房价收入比和流动人口居留意愿三者之间的关系。研究结果表明:第一,公共服务供给不仅直接强化了流动人口的居留意愿,而且通过房价收入比间接影响流动人口的居留意愿,综合考虑变量不同表示方法与样本选择后,结果仍保持稳健;第二,对于不同行政等级的城市,中心城市的房价收入比在公共服务供给强化居留意愿过程中的中介作用要小于非中心城市房价收入比的中介作用;第三,公共服务供给通过房价选择了高收入的流动人口留下,同时挤出了无法承担高生活成本的低收入流动人口,解释了为什么公共服务供给降低了流动人口的房价收入比,进而增加其居留意愿。

Based on the national floating population dynamic monitoring data in 2017,this article analyzes the relationship between the supply of public services, the housing price-to-income ratio, and the willingness to stay of the floating population.The research results show that: First, the supply of public services not only directly strengthens the willingness to stay of the floating population, but also indirectly affects the willingness to stay of the floating population through the housing price-to-income ratio.After comprehensively considering the different expression methods and sample selection of variables, the results remain stable;Second, for cities of different administrative levels, the intermediary effect of the housing price-to-income ratio of central cities in the process of public service supply strengthening the willingness to stay is smaller than that of non-central cities;Third,the supply of public services selects high-income migrants to stay through housing prices,and at the same time crowds out low-income migrants who cannot afford the high cost of living. This explains why the supply of public services reduces the housing price-to-income ratio of the migrants,and then increases it.Their willingness to stay.