中国少数民族流动人口的空间格局及其影响因素——基于2010年人口普查分地级市数据的分析

The Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of the Migrant Ethnic Minorities in China——An Analysis Based on The Prefecture-level Data of The 2010 Census

基于2010年第六次人口普查的长表数据和2010年《中国城市统计年鉴》中的各地级市社会经济数据,运用局部空间自相关分析、全局空间自相关系分析和空间计量模型等方法,对我国少数民族流动人口的空间格局及影响其流入的因素进行分析。研究发现:少数民族流动人口跨省流动依据距离选择最近的经济发达的城市群,首选为以广东省为核心的珠三角地区,长三角地区次之,再后为京津冀地区;少数民族流动人口空间分布表现出明显的空间集聚特征,主要集聚在广东省和广西壮族自治区;在人口、经济和社会三大因素中,经济因素是影响少数民族流动的最重要因素,主要表现在流入地城市的职工平均收入、人均GDP和财政支出对少数民族人口流入有显著的正向影响。社会因素中的城市行政级别和交通设施对对少数民族人口流入同样有显著的正向影响。

This article is based on the long table data of the sixth census in 2010 and the socio-economic data of each city in the 2010“China City Statistical Yearbook”,using local spatial autocorrelation analysis,global spatial autocorrelation analysis,and spatial econometric models.To analyze the spatial pattern and influencing factors of the migration of the maigrant ethnic minorities in china.The research found that:The inter-provincial migration of ethnic minority population selects the nearest economically developed urban agglomeration based on distance.The first choice is the Pearl River Delta region with Guangdong Province as the core,followed by the Yangtze River Delta region,and then the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The spatial distribution of the maigrant ethnic minorities shows obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics,mainly concentrated in Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.Among the three major factors of population,economy,and society,economic factors are the most important factors affecting the movement of ethnic minorities,which are mainly manifested in the fact that the average income of urban employees,GDP per capita and fiscal expenditure have the significant positive effect on the migration of ethnic minority populations.In terms of social factors,urban administrative levels and transportation facilities also have a significant positive impact on the migration of ethnic minority populations.