养老机构床位空置分布影响因素的空间分析:以北京市为例

Spatial Analyses of Bed Vacancy of Nursing Homes in Beijing

养老机构床位空置分布受到区域要素形塑而呈现非均衡空间格局。使用2016年北京市居家养老服务设施摸底普查数据,计算养老机构床位的空置率并阐释其空间分布特征和影响因素。数据分析结果表明北京市养老机构面临四类问题,即资金周转困难、政策支持不足、机构建设滞后、专业人才缺乏,呈现总体床位空置率达47%、拥挤与空置并存的“空间结构性矛盾”。利用多尺度地理加权回归模型进一步研究发现,北京市养老机构床位空置状况受到其内在能力、政策环境及区位条件三方面要素共同作用。政策环境中的运营补贴与机构星级因素和区位条件中的非本街道老年人因素及区位因素对于养老机构床位空置分布的影响有明显空间变异性。为提高养老机构床位利用率和推动老龄事业与产业协同发展,建议从全局和局域出发,优化支持政策、改善区位条件和增强专业化服务能力。

The non-equilibrium distribution of bed vacancy of nursing homes shaped by spatial-regional factors.Based on the data from 2016 Beijing home-based old-age service facilities survey,the spatial distribution characteristics of bed vacancy of nursing homes and its determinants were quantified by spatial analyses.The nursing homes development in Beijing suffers from turnover hardship of funds,insufficient policy supports,backward infrastructures,and lack of professionals.The results show that the bed vacancy rate of nursing homes is about 47%,and there is a spatial structural contradiction as overcrowding and vacancy coexisting.Multi-scale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)indicates that the distribution of bed vacancy of nursing homes is mainly affected by the combination of their intrinsic capacity,policy environment and geographic conditions.The influence of non-native street seniors,star level,subsidy policy and geographic factors on bed vacancy rate of nursing homes has significant spatial variation.In order to boost the bed efficiency rate of nursing homes and promote coordinated development of aging industry and aging business,we should optimize the policy environment,make good use of the location and enhance the inherent capacity according to local conditions.