“一带一路”沿线国家税收环境与中国对外直接投资效率——基于时变随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

National Tax Environment of “the Belt and Road” Countries and the Efficiency of China’s Outward Direct Investment——Empirical Research Based on the Time-Varying Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

基于2006~2019年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资面板数据,运用时变随机前沿引力模型测算中国对外直接投资效率,分析东道国税收环境对投资效率的影响。研究发现,“一带一路”沿线国家较重的税收负担、复杂的税制结构和低效的税收征管水平造成中国对外直接投资效率损失,而东道国税收透明度的提高可以显著改善中国对外直接投资效率;中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资效率整体水平较低但呈现正的时变效应,且对不同区域和国家投资效率呈现明显的时空异质性。鉴于此,政府应积极推动建设区域税收合作机制,完善与“一带一路”沿线国家税收协定网络,逐步建立“一带一路”沿线国家税收环境同行审议机制;企业应有效评估境外投资税收风险,积极寻求税务机关协助,加强企业内部税务管理水平,提高纳税遵从度。

Based on the panel data of China’s direct investment along “the Belt and Road”(the B&R) from 2006 to 2019, this paper uses a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to measure the efficiency of China’s foreign direct investment and analyzes the impact of the host countries’ tax environment on improving China’s investment efficiency. The study finds that the heavier tax burden, complex tax structure and inefficient tax collection and administration of countries along the B&R cause the efficiency loss of China’s OFDI, and the improvement of tax transparency of the host country can significantly improve the efficiency of China’s OFDI. The overall level of China’s investment efficiency in countries along the B&R is still at relatively low stage but presents a positive time-varying effect, and there are temporal and spatial differences in investment efficiency in different countries and regions. Based on this, the government should actively promote the construction of regional tax cooperation mechanism, improve the network of tax agreements between China and countries along the B&R, and gradually establish the peer review mechanism of tax environment in countries along the B&R. For enterprises, it is necessary to effectively assess the tax risk of overseas investment, actively seek assistance from tax authorities, strengthen internal tax management and improve tax compliance.