数字经济发展不平衡抑制了经济周期协同性吗?

Does the Imbalance of Digital Economy Restrain Business Cycle Synchronization?

本文基于2003—2018年我国30个省份的面板数据,采用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)和结构方程模型(SEM)实证分析区域数字经济发展不平衡对经济周期协同性的影响。研究发现:区域数字经济发展不平衡对经济周期协同性存在稳健的负向作用;数字经济发展不平衡通过降低产业结构相似度和贸易关联度对区域经济周期协同性产生负向影响;数字经济发展整体水平的提高强化了产业结构相似度的中介效应,弱化了贸易关联度的中介效应。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of imbalance of digital economy on business cycle synchronization using Bayesian model average(BMA)and structural equation modeling(SEM).The results show that there is a robust negative effect of the imbalance of digital economy on economic cycle synchronization,the imbalance of digital economy has a negative effect on regional business cycle synchronization by reducing industrial structure similarity and trade intensity,and the increase in the overall level of digital economy development strengthens the mediating effect of industrial structure similarity and weakens the mediating effect of trade intensity.