数字人民币对商业银行利润的影响研究——基于DSGE模型的分析

The Impact of Digital RMB on Commercial Banks’ Profit:Analysis Based on DSGE Models

数字人民币于2020年起在我国试点推广,成为家庭部门新的资产选择。本文立足数字人民币的运行机制,考虑风险偏好理论和数字人民币对商业银行信贷成本的影响,构建了两个DSGE模型,分别研究数字人民币替代现金和替代存款两个阶段对商业银行利润的影响。结果表明:在数字人民币替代现金阶段,数字人民币技术冲击会削弱货币需求,但对商业银行利润的影响极其微弱,同时数字人民币持有比例越高,对于现金的挤出效应越低,商业银行和中央银行的缩表现象也得到缓解;居民对数字人民币的偏好越强,商业银行负债和央行资产缩减幅度越大;在数字人民币替代存款阶段,商业银行的利润波动剧烈,短期急速下降,而后迅速回升,中长期反而创造了新的利润空间。

The digital RMB is being rolled out in China on a pilot basis from 2020 onwards, becoming a new asset choice for the household sector.Based on the operational mechanism of digital RMB,this paper considers risk preference theory and the impact of digital RMB on commercial banks’ credit costs, and constructs two DSGE models to investigate the impact of digital RMB on commercial banks’ profits in the two stages of replacing cash and replacing deposits respectively.The results show that: in the digital RMB substitution for cash stage, the digital RMB technology shock will weaken the demand for money, but the impact on commercial banks’ profits is extremely weak, while the higher the proportion of digital RMB holdings, the lower the crowding-out effect on cash, and the shrinking performance of commercial banks and central banks is mitigated;the stronger the residents’ preference for digital RMB,the greater the shrinkage of commercial banks’ liabilities and central banks’ assets;in the digital RMB substitution for deposits phase, commercial banks’ profits fluctuate sharply, falling sharply in the short term and then recovering rapidly, creating new profit margins in the medium to long term instead.