中国乳制品进口贸易波动的外溢效应研究

The Research on the Spillover Effect of China’s Dairy Products Import Trade

本文基于全球乳制品贸易网络模型,模拟了中国乳制品进口需求下降10%的初始冲击对全球主要乳业经济体、不同洲际以及“一带一路”和非“一带一路”地区的外溢效应,并对乳业经济体如何有效应对冲击以使“外溢效应最小化”进行了深入探讨。结果表明,(1)一些乳业发达经济体的直接外溢效应和间接外溢效应最为明显;外围国家的外溢效应在乳业发达经济体和参与度较高的小型乳业开放经济体中表现突出;反向外溢效应使中国奶业生产总值在下降0.875%的基础上进一步加剧0.052%的降幅。(2)外溢效应扩大者面向冲击主要表现为突发性的刚性冲击,外溢效应吸收者则表现为持续性的柔性冲击,四轮冲击后前者总外溢效应要小于后者。选择与全球乳业经济体中的外溢效应扩大者合作可以有效分散乳制品贸易风险,但并不适用于小型乳业经济体。(3)大洋洲地区的直接外溢效应最大,欧盟在其他外溢效应中均最为明显。非“一带一路”地区在各种外溢效应中均最显著,“一带一路”奶业联盟的成立在短期内发挥作用较小。中心国家乳制品贸易伙伴的外溢效应基本呈现逐轮递减的趋势,但直接贸易伙伴国和间接贸易伙伴国也可能出现外溢反复的现象,其外溢影响要低于平均值。

Based on the global dairy product trade network model,this paper simulates the spillover effect of the initial impact of a 10% drop in China’s dairy import demand on the world’s major dairy economies,different continents,and the “Belt and Road” and non-“Belt and Road” regions.This paper also discusses the question that how the economy can effectively respond to shocks to minimize the spillover effect conducted in-depth discussions.The results show that:(1) Some developed dairy economies have the most obvious direct and indirect spillover effects;the spillover effect are prominent in developed dairy economies and small dairy open economies with a high degree of participation;the spillback effect made China’s dairy industry’s gross production value drop by 0.875% and further exacerbated the 0.052% decline.(2)Shock-amplifiers face shocks mainly as sudden rigid shocks,while shock-absorbers show sustained flexible shocks.After four rounds of impact,the total spillover effect of the former is smaller than that of the latter.Choosing to cooperate with the spillover effect expanders in the global dairy economy can effectively diversify the risks of dairy products trade,but it is not suitable for small dairy economies.(3) Oceania has the largest direct spillover effects,and the European Union has the most obvious spillover effects among other spillover effects.The non-“Belt and Road” regions have the most significant spillover effects.The establishment of the “Belt and Road” dairy industry alliance play a smaller role in the short term.The spillover effects of the dairy product trading partners of the central country basically show a decreasing trend,but the direct and indirect trading partner countries may also have repeated spillovers,and the spillover effects are lower than the average.