扑杀补助对养殖户非洲猪瘟防控行为的影响研究

Impact of Culling Subsidy on Prevention and Control of African Swine Fever among Farmers

非洲猪瘟疫情对中国生猪产业和社会经济发展造成了巨大打击。非洲猪瘟疫病的预防和控制成为当前中国亟待解决的重要问题。养殖户是非洲猪瘟防控的重要主体,其防控行为在整个非洲猪瘟防控体系中发挥着重要作用。本文基于扑杀补助政策下养殖户对非洲猪瘟防控行为的决策机理分析,利用黑龙江、贵州和陕西三个省513份生猪养殖户的问卷调查数据,实证分析了扑杀补助对养殖户非洲猪瘟疫情上报意愿和预防投入的影响,比较了不同补助形式的政策效果,通过数值模拟分析找出激励相容的扑杀补助水平。研究结果表明:扑杀补助水平的提高有利于激励养殖户上报疫情,但同时也降低养殖户的预防投入;相比于“按大小”补助形式,激励不相容现象在“一刀切”补助形式下更为明显。政府的监管和养殖户自身对非洲猪瘟疫病的认知能改善养殖户的防控行为。在一个确定的非洲猪瘟防控环境(一定的政府监查力度、风险偏好等)下,略高于偷售收益的补助水平能够增强养殖户的疫情上报意愿的同时又不会降低他们的预防投入水平。本文的研究结论为政府改进和优化非洲猪瘟扑杀补助政策提供决策参考。

The African swine fever epidemics have caused a huge blow to the swine production industry and socioeconomic development in China.The prevention and control of African swine fever have become an urgent issue to be solved.As the main actors responsible for African swine fever prevention and control,farmers’ behavior in prevention and control plays an important role in the entire African swine fever prevention and control system.This study analyzed farmers’ decision-making mechanism towards their prevention against the epidemic under the culling subsidy policy.Based on the survey of 513 data of pig farmers in Heilongjiang,Guizhou and Shanxi,this study further empirically analyzed the effects on reporting fever and inputs on prevention from subsidy policy,and compared the effects of different subsidy policies.Finally,the range of the most incentive compatible culling subsidy was estimated by the numerical simulation analysis.The results show that the increase in the level of culling subsidies could stimulate farmers’ willingness to report the epidemic,and at the same time reduce farmers’ input in prevention.Incentive incompatibility is more obvious in “One-size-fits-all” subsidy model than that in the form of “subsidy according to pig size”.Government supervision and farmers’ cognition of African swine fever can improve farmers’ prevention and control behavior.Under a certain African swine fever prevention and control situation(determined government supervision,determined risk preference,etc.),the subsidy slightly higher than the proceeds of stolen sale can enhance farmers’ willingness to report the epidemic but not reduce the level of prevention input.The conclusions of this study will be instruments for the government to improve and optimize the African swine fever culling subsidy policy.