《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》对我国民族地区经济发展及相关产业的影响研究

Research on the Influence of RCEP Establishment on the Economic Development and Relevant Industries in Ethnic Areas

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)生效实施必然对我国区域经济和产业发展产生深远影响。本文将GTAP模型与中国多区域CGE模型相链接,分析RCEP对我国民族地区经济发展及相关产业的影响。研究发现,短期内由于出口和国内区域间需求增长的拉动,RCEP会促进民族地区的经济发展;长期内由于劳动力要素向发达地区转移,民族地区的部分省区经济发展将受到一定抑制。进一步分析发现,RCEP在短期内促进我国民族地区电子产品制造业的发展,但长期仅青海和宁夏的产出有所提升;短期内民族地区的部分省区农业略受抑制,但长期内云南、西藏、青海、宁夏和新疆的农业发展得到明显促进;民族地区的汽车制造业受到不同程度的冲击。民族地区应积极融入新发展格局,探索差别化产业发展路径,走出具有自身特色的高质量发展之路。

The establishment of the Regional Com preh en si ve Economic Partnership(RCEP)will inevitably have a profound impact on the regional economic and industrial development of China.This paper links the GTAP model with the Chinese multi-regional CGE model to analyze the impact of the establishment of RCEP on the economic development of ethnic regions.The study found that in the short term,due to the growth of exports and domestic inter-regional demand,the establishment of RCEP will promote the economic development of ethnic areas while in the long term the economic development of some provinces and regions in ethnic areas will be somewhat curbed due to the transfer of labor factors to developed regions.Further analysis found that RCEP promoted the development of electronic product manufacturing in ethnic areas in the short run,but in the long run,an increase in output was seen only in Qinghai and Ningxia.The agricultural development overall was curbed in ethnic areas in the short term,but has been significantly promoted in Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang in the long term.The automobile manufacturing industry in ethnic areas is generally hindered.Ethnic regions should actively integrate into the new development pattern,explore the development path of differentiated industries,and embark on a high-quality development path with their own characteristics.