摘要
国际能源秩序既具有相对稳定性,又会因局部不稳定因素影响而发生变化。从国际能源秩序的历史演变看,20世纪70年代中期以来经历了由欧佩克主导,到欧佩克与国际能源机构相互制衡,再到向竞争型市场转变的不断演进,能源供求关系的变化是推动国际能源秩序演进的主导因素。2022年2月下旬,俄乌冲突爆发,美西方对全球重要能源生产和出口国的俄罗斯实施经济制裁,不可避免地将改变全球能源供求关系和全球“碳中和”发展进程,并会对美西方的“制裁霸权”和“美元霸权”形成“反噬”,国际能源秩序必然也会因俄乌冲突的爆发进入新的建构期。国际能源秩序的演进,也将使中东地区在全球能源安全中的重要性以及中东资源国的能源政策话语权得到进一步提升,中东地区也将重新成为国际能源投资的热点区域。
The international energy order is not only relatively stable,but also partly affected by unstable factors.From the historical perspective of evolution of international energy order,it has experienced three historical periods since the middle of the 1970s:the domination by OPEC,the counterbalance between OPEC and the International Energy Agency,and the transition to competitive market.Changes in the relationship between energy supply and demand are the leading driving factors to the evolution of the international energy order.Russia is an important energy producer and exporter in the world.The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict,as well as the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the Western countries on Russia in late February 2022 will deliver important impact on the international oil and gas supply-demand balances,in addition,it will also change the global “carbon neutrality”process.And besides,the conflict and sanctions will“bite back”on the“sanctions hegemony”and“dollar hegemony”of the United States and the Western countries.In this context,the conflict will trigger the reconstruction of international energy order.Under the evolution of international energy order,the importance of the Middle East region to global energy security will be enhanced and Middle Eastern resources-rich countries will become more independent in setting producing policies.In addition,the Middle Eastern region will attract more investment in their energy sectors.
出处
《西亚非洲》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期32-50,156,157,共21页
West Asia and Africa
基金
中国社会科学院“登峰战略”优势学科“当代中东研究”项目及中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所创新项目“西亚非洲国家经济社会发展研究”的阶段性成果。
关键词
国际能源秩序
“欧佩克+”
俄乌冲突
能源市场
中东能源政策话语权
international energy order
OPEC+
Russia-Ukraine conflict
energy market
Middle Eastern countries’discourse power of Energy policy