产业联盟网络中企业5G技术扩散的仿真研究——以扎根理论分析为基础

Simulation Study on 5G Technology Diffusion in Industrial Alliance Network——Based on the Grounded-Theory Analysis

在产业联盟网络视角下,企业5G技术扩散如何在宏观层面对产业发展产生影响呢?本研究依托于专家访谈和扎根理论对5G企业技术扩散的相关研究变量进行了解构,最终得到6个范畴23个概念,并通过了理论饱和检验。根据扎根理论得到的23个概念,结合符合系统动力学的现实关系,构建出因果图。进而根据1997—2006年的数据,依托产业联盟网络构建了5G技术扩散的系统动力学仿真模型,研究其复杂动态演化过程并预测了2021—2035年5G产业发展趋势,从而得出以下结论:“产业知识(空间)结构”观测值达到极值而快速下降后,新的技术扩散效应将以更快的速率吸引更多的企业进入技术产业联盟、开展应用型技术合作,这会促使产业联盟内不断提升的“5G产业技术标准”同“技术创新成果转化机制”间结成良性循环,进而持续提升“新技术产品产值”,并吸引更多的应用型技术创新企业进入产业联盟,继而重复前述过程。对这一仿真结论的动力学表现进行理论化建构,可以得到产业联盟网络中企业5G技术扩散的“四阶段”模型。结合仿真可视化结果,以2021—2035年为一个单位的生命周期,则2021—2024年为技术的离散互动阶段、2024—2026年为技术的单核扩散阶段、2026—2029年为技术的多核扩散阶段、2029—2035年为技术的高水平互动传播阶段。在这样的系统动力学演化模型中,“产业技术标准”与“产业知识结构”是兼具指标客观性和纯粹原因力的影响因素,应当被作为产业联盟网络中企业5G技术扩散的关键系统内驱力加以认识,从而为未来5G通信行业发展和政府产业政策决策提供科学的理论依据。

This paper mainly studies how the technology diffusion of 5G enterprises affects the industrial development at the macro level from the perspective of industrial alliance netw ork. Based on expert interview s and grounded theory,this paper deconstructs the relevant research variables of 5G enterprise technology diffusion,and finally obtains 23 concepts in 6 categories,w hich have passed the theoretical saturation test. Subsequently,VensimPLE7. 3 softw are is used to construct the causal diagram based on the 23 concepts obtained from the grounded theory and the realistic relationship in line w ith system dynamics. Then,according to the data from 1997 to 2006,the system dynamics simulation model of 5G technology diffusion is constructed based on the industrial alliance netw ork,and the simulation results from 2021 to 2035 are obtained. The conclusions are show ed as follow s: After the observation value of “industrial know ledge( spatial) structure”reaches the extreme value and drops rapidly,the new technology diffusion effect w ill attract more enterprises to enter the technology industry alliance and carry out applied technology cooperation at a higher rate,w hich w ill promote a virtuous circle betw een the continuously improving “5G industrial technical standards ” and the “transformation mechanism of technological innovation achievements” in the industrial alliance,and then continuously improve the“output value of new technology products”and attract more application-oriented technological innovation enterprises to enter the industrial alliance. The “four-stage ” model of 5G technology diffusion in industrial alliance netw ork can be obtained by theoretical construction of the dynamic performance of this simulation conclusion. Combined w ith the simulation visualization results,taking 2021-2035 as a unit of life cycle,2021-2024 is the discrete interactive stage of technology,2024-2026 is the single-core diffusion stage of technology,2026-2029 is the multi-core diffusion stage of technology,and 2029-2035 is the high-level interactive communication stage of technology. In such a system dynamics evolution model,“industrial technology standards ” and “industrial know ledge structure ” are both objective and purely causal factors,w hich should be recognized as the key system driving force of 5G technology diffusion in industrial alliance netw ork,so as to provide scientific theoretical basis for the future development of 5G communication industry and government industrial policy decision support.