广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物与温室气体排放趋势研究

Atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from household energy consumption in Guangdong Province

居民生活直接能源消费是重要的大气污染物和温室气体排放来源,识别其历史排放趋势是科学制定管控策略的基础.然而目前我国尚缺乏省级尺度居民生活能源消费排放趋势的研究.以广东省为研究对象,通过广泛收集居民生活直接能源消费数据和排放因子,建立了2006—2017年广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体排放清单,并采用情景分析法量化了能源结构变化对居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物与温室气体排放的影响.结果表明:①2006—2017年居民生活直接能源消费排放的大气污染物和温室气体均呈下降趋势,CO、PM_(2.5)、BC、OC、CH_(4)、CO_(2)和N_(2)O排放量分别下降70%、59%、59%、66%、77%、30%和73%;②城乡贡献上,乡村居民生活直接能源消费是大气污染物和温室气体排放的主要来源,排放分担率分别在70%和60%以上;③空间分布上,2017年广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体排放主要集中在粤东、粤西传统燃料消费量较高的地区,以及广州、东莞和深圳等人口密度较大的城市地区;④能源结构清洁化所致的2006—2017年广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体减排比例为38%~88%;⑤以2025年为目标年,居民生活能源结构持续清洁化发展能够进一步降低居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体排放,尤其对CO、PM_(2.5)、BC、CH_(4)和N_(2)O的减排比例均在80%以上.

Household energy consumption is an important source of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions.Understanding its emission evolution is critical for scientific policy-making and the formulation of control measures.However,emission trends of residential energy consumption at the provincial level are still unknown.Using Guangdong province as an example,we estimated air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from household energy consumption from 2006 to 2017 using local emission factors.The impact of changes in energy structure on air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions is quantified using scenario analysis.①From 2006 to 2017,CO,PM_(2.5),BC,OC,CO_(2),and N_(2)O emissions from household energy consumption in Guangdong decreased by 70%,59%,59%,77%,30%,and 73%,respectively.②Household energy consumption in rural areas is the main source of these estimates,accounting for 70%of air pollutant emissions and 60%of greenhouse gas emissions,respectively.③Air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from household energy consumption in Guangdong in 2017 were primarily concentrated in rural areas with high traditional fuel consumption,such as East and West Guangdong,and urban areas with high population densities(e.g.,Guangzhou,Dongguan,and Shenzhen).④From 2006 to 2017,clean energy development reduced air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions by 38%to 88%.⑤Using 2025 as an example,the clean energy development is beneficial for reducing air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from household energy consumption,particularly CO,PM_(2.5),BC,CH_(4),and N_(2)O emissions,which are reduced by more than 80%.