“双碳”目标下东北三省水-能源纽带关系及网络特征分析

Analysis of water-energy ties and network characteristics in the three provinces of northeast china under the “double carbon” target

厘清水⁃能源联动关系,优化水⁃能源消费结构是实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的首要途径。构建区域资源⁃经济投入产出模型,以2017年为基准年对东北三省水资源和能源消耗进行测算,并通过展布虚拟水⁃能源足迹的空间转移变化,分析部门资源流通状况,在此基础上耦合多源数据构建水⁃能源系统生态网络分析模型,探究水⁃能源网络耦合特征。结果显示:(1)2017年东北三省直接水资源消费总量为561.97亿m^(3),能源隐含水总量为30.48亿m^(3),水资源隐含能消费量为699.25万tce,直接能源消费量为40579.95万tce,虚拟水足迹为474.13亿m^(3),虚拟能源足迹为54668.6万tce;(2)虚拟水足迹部门转移变化为:辽宁省最大输入路径为食品制造及烟草加工业⁃农业,吉林省和黑龙江省输入路径则相反;虚拟能源部门转移变化中最大流通部门分别为:建筑业⁃第三产业/金属冶炼及制品业、采选业⁃化学工业。(3)水⁃能源网络循环率均低于40‰,竞争关系是水⁃能源网络效用矩阵关系中主流关系;在三省中,吉林省水⁃能源网络的协作性最优,生态网络处于更为稳定的状态之中;水⁃能源网络耦合后,各省虚拟资源网络共生指数呈现不同程度增长,对各经济部门影响正向效应显著;对比虚拟资源网络,各部门之间的水资源网络控制程度呈现不同程度的减弱,依赖程度普遍加深;能源网络方面部门间控制能力整体偏强,依赖程度总体呈减弱趋势。研究结果可为水能管理部门制定科学合理的用水用能决策提供参考依据。

Clarifying the water-energy linkage relationship and optimizing the water-energy consumption structure are the primary ways to achieve “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. A regional resource-economic input-output model was constructed to calculate the water and energy consumption of the the three provinces of northeast china based on 2017.In addition, it analyzes the resource circulation of the department by spreading the spatial transfer changes of the virtual water-energy footprint. On this basis, multi-source data are coupled to build an ecological network analysis model of water-energy system, so as to explore the coupling characteristics of water-energy network. The results show:(1) in 2017, the total consumption of water resources in the the three provinces of northeast china was 56.197 billion m^(3), the total implied water of energy was 3.048 billion m^(3), and the implied energy consumption of water resources was 6.9925 million tce, energy consumption was 405.7995 million tce, the virtual water footprint was 47.413 billion m^(3) and the virtual energy footprint was 546.686 million tce.(2) The change of virtual water footprint is as follows: The largest input path of Liaoning province was food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry-agriculture, while the input path of Jilin province and Heilongjiang Province was opposite;The largest circulation sectors in the change of virtual energy sector are construction industry-tertiary industry/metal smelting and products industry, selection industry-chemical industry.(3) The cycle rate of water-energy network is lower than 40%, competition relation is the mainstream relation in utility matrix relation of water resource-energy network;Among the three provinces, Jilin province has the best cooperation in water-energy network, its ecological network is in a more stable state;After the water-energy network coupling, the symbiosis index of virtual resource network in each province increases in different degrees, which has a significantly positive effect on each economic sector;compared with virtual resource network, the control degree of water resource network among different departments is weakened to varying degrees, and the dependence degree is generally deepened. In the aspect of energy network, the interdepartmental control ability is strong on the whole, and the dependence degree is weakening on the whole. The results can provide a reference for the management department to make scientific and rational decisions on water and energy use.