城市韧性概念、影响因素及其评估研究进展

A review of definitions,influence factors and assessment of urban resilience

在城市化快速进程中,不确定性的多元干扰对城市发展造成威胁,如何增强城市吸收、抵御、适应与学习能力是亟待解决的热点议题。韧性城市作为城市应对不确定性风险的新兴理念范式,对提高城市韧性水平与应变能力具备指导意义。对韧性概念进行辨析,阐述了城市韧性的概念,并提出多要素融合、多能力转变与多时空尺度的城市韧性概念见解。基于所提出的城市韧性概念,从过程化视角系统总结了多元干扰、城市系统状态、城市应对能力对城市韧性的影响。对单领域和多领域评估进行梳理,针对基于城市韧性要素、韧性特征、韧性实现过程的三种评估指标进行具体探讨,总结与比较了定性和定量的城市韧性评估方法。基于上述分析,提出当前存在缺乏城市如何实现韧性的研究、评估指标较少关注组织要素、多干扰和多主体、评估方法缺乏机理与动态模拟的应用、理论与落地实践脱轨等问题。最后提出未来展望,即注重城市韧性过程分析,设计更具完整性与针对性的指标体系,推动研究方法科学化与动态化改进,加强形成“机制-评估-管理”的可操作性闭环。

In the rapid urbanization process, uncertain and diverse disturbances pose a threat to urban development. Enhancing the city′s ability to absorb, resist, adapt and study has become a hot topic that needs to be resolved urgently. As a new paradigm for cities to deal with uncertain risks, a resilient city has guide significance for improving urban resilience and emergency response capability. This paper discriminates resilience detail, which realized the cognitive changes from engineering, ecological, and evolutionary perspectives, then compares resilience with recovery and elasticity. It puts forward the idea about the concept of urban resilience of multi-factor integration, multi-capacity transformation, and multi-temporal and spatial scales based on the study of existing concepts of urban resilience. In this study, the concept of urban resilience is the ability of the whole urban system to optimize resilience independently in the current and future periods. It reflects an ability to face disturbances by integrating and exerting the functional role of various urban elements(including economy, society, organization, ecology, infrastructure), mobilizing the participation of multiple subjects such as urban individuals, communities, social organizations, and governments. It improves urban resilience by coping capacities of prevention, resistance, recovery, learning, adaptation, and transformation. Based on the concept of urban resilience proposed above, the paper systematically summarizes the impact of multiple disturbances, city system status, and urban coping capabilities on urban resilience from a process perspective. The single-domain and multi-domain assessments of urban resilience are sorted out. Three assessment index systems based on urban resilience elements, urban resilience characteristics, and the process of urban resilience realization are discussed in detail. And qualitative and quantitative urban resilience assessment methods are summarized and compared. Through the above analysis, the paper clarified the weaknesses, such as lacking of research on how to achieve urban resilience, paying less attention to the organizational factors, diverse disturbances and multiple subjects to evaluation indicators, lacking the application of mechanism and dynamic simulation about evaluation method, derailing between theory and practice. At last, the paper put forward the research prospects. That is, further work should pay more attention to process analysis of how the city achieves resilience rather than the result of the city′s resilience, and try to design a more complete and targeted indicator system by introducing multi-source data. In addition, studies should continue to promote the scientific and dynamic improvement of research methods, and aim to strengthen the formation of an operable closed loop of mechanism-evaluation-management oriented by empirical research.