“省公顷”下渭河干流甘肃段生态安全评价及预测

Ecological Security Evaluation and Prediction of Gansu Section of Weihe River Based on“Sub-national Hectares”

摸清流域生态需求和生态供给是流域生态治理和促进其高质量发展的基础。文中应用改进生态足迹法对2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力进行核算,并运用GM(1,1)模型对流域未来的生态供需趋势进行预测。结果显示,2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力呈波动下降趋势,生态足迹下降2.26%,下降趋势低于生态承载力的4.18%;生态赤字以每年0.58%的速率波动减小。如果继续当前的发展模式,那么预计到2028年,生态赤字较2018年降低16.27%,流域生态安全状况将得到缓解。

Understanding the ecological demand and ecological supply was the basis of watershed ecological governance and promoting its high-quality development.In this paper,the improved ecological footprint was applied to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Gansu section of Weihe River from 2009 to 2018,and GM(1,1)model was used to predict future ecological supply and demand trend of the watershed.The results showed that from 2009 to 2018,the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Gansu section of Weihe River presented a fluctuating downward trend.The ecological footprint decreased by 2.26%,which was lower than 4.18% of the ecological carrying capacity.The ecological deficit fluctuated down at a rate of 0.58% per year.If the current development model continued,by 2028,the ecological deficit was projected to be 16.27% lower than that in 2018,and the ecological security of the watershed would be alleviated.