可再生能源开发及多能互补分析——以青海为例

Renewable energy development and multi-energy complementation,taking Qinghai as an example

积极开发可再生能源是中国实现“双碳”目标的重要途径之一。该文总结了2020年中国各类电力装机容量,对比了中国与世界的电力“绿色程度”,提出了可用于模拟计算梯级水库群水电调峰能力的一种方法,给出了进行多电源互补的过程,通过对黄河上游梯级电站的模拟,获得了青海省在2030规划水平年逐月的调峰电量和电网多能互补分析结果。负荷的逐月平衡分析表明:丰水年份,风电和光伏发电产生较多弃电,而平水年、枯水年的发电能力与电网负荷需求基本匹配。典型日逐时多能互补分析表明:丰水年夏季,风电、光伏入网将导致负荷峰谷差变大,风、光产生较多弃电;枯水年冬季,水电和火电的电量与调峰能力不足,需要从外网购电,但这同时会导致弃光和弃风。青海电网应推动储能建设及其他电源的建设,秉持电网基荷电量和调峰能力建设并重,以减少网内弃电和外网购电。该文所介绍的水库群电力调节能力模拟方法和多能互补过程可用于其他电网,所得结论对青海的电源发展具有一定的参考价值。

Actively developing renewable energy sources is one important way to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality targets in China.This paper summarizes the power installed capacities of various power generation methods in China in 2020 and compares the electricity green capabilities in China and the world.This paper then describes a method to analyze the peak shaving capacity of cascade reservoirs,presents a way to integrate multiple power sources,and uses simulations of cascade hydropower stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River to predict the monthly peak shaving capability of hydropower and other energy sources for the power grid of Qinghai Province for the target year of 2030.The monthly load balance analysis shows that wind power and photovoltaic power generation will lead to more excess,wasted electricity generation in wet years,with full use of the generated power in normal and dry years.The hourly analysis of the multiple power sources during a typical day shows that wind power and photovoltaic power production increases the peak-valley difference of the electrical loads and lead to more excess electricity that is wasted,while in winters of dry years,the electrical production and peak shaving capacity are insufficient and lead to power outsourcing which results in the abandoning of wind and photovoltaic power sources.Thus,the Qinghai power grid needs to promote the construction of power storage systems and renewable power sources.Qinghai also needs to enlarge their baseload capacity and peak shaving capacity to reduce waste and power outsourcing.The simulation method to analyze power shaving capacities of cascade reservoirs and integrating multiple energy sources may be used in other power grids and the conclusions provide a reference for developing the Qinghai electrical system.