天津市减污降碳协同效应评估与预测

Evaluation and prediction of the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin

为评估和预测天津市减污降碳协同效应,采用减排量弹性系数法评估减污降碳协同效应,基于STIRPAT模型预测天津市“十四五”期间的减污降碳协同效应,并分情景预测天津市2026~2060年的减污降碳协同效应.结果表明:大气污染当量和温室气体的主要排放源均为工业源;2015~2017年天津市减污降碳协同效应系数范围为0.11~0.26,2013~2014年和2018~2020年天津市的减污降碳协同效应系数均小于0;天津市“十四五”期间减污降碳协同效应系数为0.06;各种情景下,2026~2060年天津市减污降碳协同效应系数均大于0.天津市2011~2020年减污降碳协同效应波动变化,“十四五”时期或可进入减污降碳协同增效阶段.天津市要在2026~2060年实现较高水平的减污降碳协同增效,就需要合理控制城镇化率、人口总数和地区生产总值,增加第三产业比重和高技术比重,持续降低能源强度.

To evaluate and predict the synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon in Tianjin,the emission reduction elasticity coefficient method was used in this study.Based on the STIRPAT model,the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period and 2026~2060 were predicted by scenario.The results showed that the main emission sources of air pollution equivalent and greenhouse gases were industrial sources.The synergistic effect coefficient of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin ranged from 0.11 to 0.26 in 2015~2017,and was less than 0in 2013~2014 and 2018~2020.According to prediction,the synergistic effect coefficient of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin was 0.06 during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period and was greater than 0 in 2026~2060 under various scenarios.In 2011~2020,the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin fluctuated and changed,and it was possible to reach the synergistic stage during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period.In order to achieve a high level of synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin from 2026 to 2060,several measures need to take,including reasonably control the urbanization rate,the total population and the gross regional product,increasing the proportion of tertiary industry and high technology,and continuously reducing the energy intensity.