多周期库存系统订货决策偏差行为成因--基于双曲贴现视角

Behavioral Cause of Ordering Decision Bias in Multi-Period Inventory System--A Perspective of Hyperbolic-Discounting

针对考虑订货提前期与批量订货的多周期库存系统,利用双曲贴现模型刻画销售商的时间偏好,研究最小化心理账户理论刻画的负效用下的订货决策偏差。理论分析与数值仿真试验显示:双曲贴现倾向是导致低估供应线的一个显著的行为原因。随双曲贴现程度增强,低估供应线程度加剧,进而导致平均每周期运营成本增加。敏感性分析表明:低估供应线程度随订货提前期和订货批量的增加而削弱,随单位持有成本和需求波动性增加而加剧。

In a multi-period inventory system with lead time and batch ordering,this paper depicts a seller's time preference by the hyperbolic-discounting model,and studies ordering decision bias when minimizing the disutility described based on the mental accounting theory.Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the hyperbolic-discounting disposition is a significant behavioral cause of the underweighting supply line.As the degree of the hyperbolic-discounting grows,the extent of the underweighting supply line and the average operational cost per period are raised.Sensitive analyses display that the extent of the underweighting supply line is weakened with an increase in lead time and the batch ordering size,but it is raised with an increase in the holding cost and demand variability.