2010—2019年武威市手足口病流行特征及与气象因素的相关性研究

Epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease and its relationship with meteorological factors in Wuwei,China,2010—2019

目的分析武威市2010—2019年手足口病(HFMD)流行病学特征,探讨气象因素对HFMD发病的影响。方法收集并分析武威市2010—2019年HFMD监测数据,分析HFMD时间、空间和人群分布及其病原谱构成情况;收集相关气象资料,用多元线性回归法对HFMD发病和气象因素进行相关性分析。结果武威市2010~2019年报告HFMD 8590例,年均发病率为47.03/10万;发病人群以5岁以下儿童为主,男性发病高于女性;发病具有明显的季节性,呈两个流行高峰,每年5—7月主高峰,9—11月次高峰。2010—2019年1244份HFMD样本中(其中咽拭子866份,粪便283份,疱疹液95份),病原阳性率为52.25%(650/1244),其中EV71型阳性率为14.31%(178/1244),CoxA16型阳性率为17.28%(215/1244),其他肠道病毒阳性率为20.66%(257/1244)。气压、气温、相对湿度、降水量、蒸发量不同程度地影响着各地区的HFMD发病,凉州区主要是气温(t=2.981,P<0.05),古浪县主要是蒸发量(t=-2.80,P<0.05),天祝县主要是气压(t=2.72,P<0.05)。结论武威市HFMD发病在不同区域、人群中有统计学差异性,且具有明显的季节性,气温、相对湿度、气压、降水量、蒸发量等气象因素与HFMD发病率关系密切,可结合气象监测数据,加强防范,有效降低HFMD发病率。

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Wuwei,Gansu province,China,2010—2019,and to explore the influence of meteorological factors on HFMD.Methods The surveillance data on HFMD in Wuwei from 2010 to 2019 were collected to analyze the temporal,spatial,and population distributions of HFMD and the pathogen spectrum composition of HFMD.Relevant meteorological data were collected.Multiple linear regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors.Results From 2010 to 2019,a total of 8590 cases of HFMD were reported in Wuwei,with an average annual incidence of 47.03/100000.Most cases were children under 5 years old.The incidence of HFMD in males was higher than that in females.The incidence of HFMD showed obvious seasonality,with two epidemic peaks in a year:a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to November.The pathogen-positive rate was 52.25%(650/1244)in a total of 1244 HFMD samples including 866 throat swabs,283 stool samples,and 95 blister fluid samples.Among the pathogens,the positive rate for EV71 was 14.31%(178/1244),17.28%(215/1244)for CoxA16,and 20.66%(257/1244)for other enteroviruses.Air pressure,air temperature,relative humidity,precipitation,and evaporation had different degrees of effects on the incidence of HFMD in various areas of Wuwei.Air temperature was the main meteorological factor in Liangzhou District(t=2.98,P<0.05),evaporation in Gulang county(t=-2.80,P<0.05),and air pressure in Tianzhu county(t=2.72,P<0.05).Conclusion The incidence of HFMD significantly differs in different regions and populations of Wuwei,and has obvious seasonality.Air temperature,relative humidity,air pressure,precipitation and evaporation are closely related to the incidence of HFMD.Meteorological monitoring data can be helpful in preventing and reducing the incidence of HFMD.