汇率变动的出口和研发效应研究

Research on the Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Export and R&D

企业的出口与研发是相互关联的经济活动,且影响着宏观经济的内外循环格局。在过去较长时期里,我国企业重出口、轻研发,导致经济在过度依赖外部大循环的同时缺乏竞争优势。只有出口与研发并重,方能促进国内国际双循环良性互动。汇率是影响企业出口与研发的重要因素,理论分析表明:本币低估是企业偏重出口轻视研发的重要原因;而本币适度升值会增加研发活动的吸引力,促使企业兼顾出口与研发。使用多值选择模型对2009—2020年上市公司数据进行实证检验的结果支持了上述结论。进一步,针对汇率制度改革不同阶段的回归结果表明,在当前的汇率双向波动阶段,升值对出口的抑制作用减弱,对研发的促进作用增强,总体上更有利于出口与研发均衡发展。由此建议在增强人民币汇率弹性的同时适度升值,有助于构建双循环新发展格局。

Enterprises’ export and R&D activities are interrelated activities,which affect the internal and external circulation pattern of the macro economy.For a long time in the past,China’s enterprises have focused on export rather than R&D,resulting in the economy over dependent on the external cycle while lacking competitive advantage.Only balanced development of export and R&D can promote the positive interaction between the domestic and international dual circulation.Exchange rate is an important factor affecting export and R&D.Theoretical analysis shows that the undervaluation of local currency is an important reason for enterprises’ focusing on export instead of R&D.A moderate appreciation of local currency will increase the attractiveness of R&D,which is conducive to the balanced development of the two.Empirical test on the data of listed companies from 2009 to 2020 using multivalued selection model support the above conclusions.In addition,the regressions for different stages of exchange rate system reform show that,in the current two-way fluctuation stage of RMB exchange rate,the inhibitory effect of appreciation on export is weakened and the promotive effect on R&D is enhanced,which is more conducive to the balanced development of export and R&D.Therefore,moderate appreciation while enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to the building of new pattern for dual-cycle.