产业政策、国家能力与发展意愿——卢旺达发展型国家模式初探(1994年至今)

Industrial Policy, State Capacity and Development Will: the Developmental State Model of Rwanda(1994-present)

21世纪以来,不少撒哈拉以南非洲国家为应对“有增长无转型”的问题开始倡导通过产业政策来促进国家的经济发展与结构转型。这当中,卢旺达独辟蹊径,探索了一条以现代服务业为主导的转型道路,并取得了明显的发展成效,被公认为近年来较为成功的非洲国家经济发展案例。本文在“发展型国家”及相关理论基础上提出“政策—能力—意愿”分析框架,用来分析发展型国家对经济进行有效干预的条件,并尝试运用这一框架对卢旺达这一典型案例予以解释。笔者认为,出众的国家能力与强烈的发展意愿是卢旺达政府通过既定的产业政策促进国家经济发展与转型的关键性因素。本文特别对常被忽视的“发展意愿”维度进行了重点阐释,认为其执政党意识形态、权力格局和腐败治理对塑造卢旺达的发展意愿发挥了重要作用。

Since the 2000 s, to counter the problem of “growth without transformation”, Sub-Saharan African countries have been promoting economic development and structural transformation through active industry policies. Among these, Rwanda has aimed to transform into a modern-services-oriented economy;the policies taken have so far been quite effective in promoting its growth and transformation. To explain the factors for a government’s effective intervention in structural transformation, this paper develops an analytical framework of “industrial policy—development will—state capacity” and attempts to account for Rwanda’s success. It is argued that its relatively strong state capacity and development will have played a crucial role in achieving the growth and transformation objectives;in particular, the ideology of ruling party, the political landscape and the containment of corruption have significantly shaped the development will of the Rwandan leadership.