突发公共卫生事件下高校封闭管理的演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Colleges Closed Management in Sudden Public Health Event

针对当前尚未有突发公共卫生事件下高校封闭管理多方博弈问题的研究现状,建立了以高校与大学生为参与主体的突发公共卫生事件下高校封闭管理的演化博弈模型,分析演化模型各稳定性条件下的均衡点,结合突发事件的四个演化阶段对均衡结果进行分析,并运用Matlab仿真模拟各影响因素对参与主体行为的动态演化过程.结果表明:高校封闭管理行为与高校获得的收益、高校封闭管理的成本有很大的关系;封闭管理期间大学生的损失与收益显著影响大学生行为策略选择.

In view of the fact that the existing studies have not considered the situation of colleges closed management of multi-player game in sudden public health event.Firstly,the evolutionary game model between the participants(i.e.,universities and college students)is constructed.Then,the equilibrium points of the model and their stability conditions are deduced.Further,equilibrium results are analyzed in combination with four evolution stages of emergencies.Finally,the influence mechanism of each factor is analyzed by Matlab simulation on the behavior of universities and.students in the expected situation.The results show that the behavior of closed management has a great relationship with the gain and cost of closed management of universities.The loss and gain of students during the closed management period significantly affect their behavioral strategy choices.