基于云模型和改进证据理论的电力监控系统风险评估

Risk Assessment of Power Monitoring System Based on Cloud Model and Improved Evidence Theory

针对电力监控系统风险评估中存在的系统建模不完整、专家评价意见的模糊性和缺乏对系统整体风险的考虑的问题,提出了基于云模型和改进证据理论的电力监控系统风险评估方法.首先根据电力监控系统的结构和安全需求,对电力监控系统的设备、安全目标和威胁进行分析,建立系统整体风险评估模型;然后结合FAHP和修正的熵权法,使用最优化组合赋权的方法得到各元素的权重;最后利用云模型和改进证据理论完成对电力监控系统的综合风险评估,得到系统的风险等级.仿真实验证明了该方法的适用性和有效性,为电力监控系统的安全管理工作提供了新的思路.

In view of the problems existing in the risk assessment of power monitoring systems,such as incomplete system modeling,fuzzy evaluation opinions of experts,and lack of consideration of the overall risk of systems,a risk assessment method for power monitoring systems is proposed,which is based on the cloud model and improved evidence theory.Firstly,according to the structure and security requirements of a power monitoring system,the equipment,security objectives,and threats of the system are analyzed,and the overall risk assessment model of the system is built.Then,in combination with the FAHP and modified entropy weight method,the weight of each element is obtained by using the optimal combination weighting method.Finally,the comprehensive risk assessment of the power monitoring system is completed by the cloud model and improved evidence theory,and the risk level of the system is obtained.The simulations show that the method is feasible and effective,which provides a new idea for the security management of the power monitoring system.