市场冲击、宏观调控与国有企业逆周期调节效应

Market Shock, Macro-Economic Control and Counter-Cyclical Effects of State-Owned Enterprises

面对危机冲击,政府通常会运用宏观调控政策来熨平短期经济波动,而不同所有制类型企业的行为选择会对宏观调控政策的效果产生深刻影响。基于中国工业企业数据的实证研究发现,国有企业在刺激政策的作用下,会逆周期增加信贷和投资,在短期内起到稳定宏观经济增长的作用;但是,从中长期来看,国有企业逆周期增加信贷和投资会导致产能严重过剩和“僵尸企业”大量增加。因此,既要重视国有企业对稳定宏观经济增长的重要作用,也要警惕宏观调控可能带来的中长期负面效应,特别是在危机之后,应尽快恢复市场机制的作用,通过跨周期调节实现经济平稳增长,实行无所有制偏向的政策,以促进资源的动态优化配置。

Facing the economic crisis, the government usually uses macroeconomic policy to smooth out the short-term economic fluctuation, and the behavior of enterprises of different ownership will have a significantly different impact on the effects of macroeconomic policy. Based on the firm-level data of China’s industrial firms, the results show the state-owned enterprises increased corporate debt and investment that contributed to the macroeconomic stability in the short run, but also provide caveats that the counter-cyclical behavior of state-owned enterprises may induce excessive leverage and excess production capacity in the long run. The policy implication is that the government can stabilize economy through the state-owned enterprises. However, the government should timely restore the main role of market in allocating resources, carry out cross-cycle adjustment to stabilize economic growth, implement non-ownership bias policies to achieve dynamic optimization.