《温疫论》疫灾环境因素背景探析

Exploration on environmental background of epidemic from Treatise on Epidemic

目的:通过探究明末南直隶地区疫情发生的时空分布特点、疫情与环境因素相互作用的时空耦合情况反映吴又可《温疫论》理论形成的背景环境。方法:聚类分析筛选出与疫情发展关联性强的环境因素,从时间、空间角度将疫情和各环境因素的发生发展进行耦合。在时间序列的趋势方面采用HP滤波模拟疫情和各环境因素发展的整体趋势并进行相关性分析,在时间序列周期性上采用小波分析的方法,分析疫情和各灾害的周期性变化以及滞后、超前情况。在空间耦合方面,采用地理信息系统分析的方法将疫情和环境因素的发生情况对应至2022年行政规划的各区、县。结果:明末南直隶地区疫病发生依次与饥荒、人口聚集性减少、旱灾、蝗灾、水灾、异常征兆、飓风等联系密切,时空耦合紧密。疫病与旱灾、蝗灾、饥荒、聚集性人口减少在时间发展趋势性上呈现正相关关系,与旱灾、饥荒、聚集性人口减少共同作用周期较长,与各灾害发生中心区域相交叉耦合,围绕着涟水县、吴中区、淮安区、常熟市、沛县等放射状分布,向沿海地区倾斜。结论:吴又可《温疫论》理论与疫情和自然灾害等环境因素的共同作用关系密切。

Objective: Reflecting the environmental background of WU You-ke’s Treatise on Epidemic by exploring the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of epidemic and the interaction between epidemic and environmental factors in southern Zhili in the late Ming dynasty. Methods: The environmental factors strongly associated with the epidemic development were obtained by cluster analysis, and the epidemic and natural disasters were fitted in time and space. Hodxick-prescott(HP)filter was used to simulate the overall trend of epidemics and natural disasters, and the correlation analysis was carried out. The method of wavelet analysis is used to analyze the periodic change, lag and advance of epidemic disease and natural disasters.Plague and environment factors were mapped to couties and districts in adminsitrative region planning in 2022 using GIS analysis.Results: In the late Ming dynasty, the occurrence of epidemic diseases in Southern Zhili region was closely related to famine,drought, locust plague, flood and rodent infestation. There was a positive correlation between the epidemic and drought, locust plague, famine and population reduction. The epidemic, drought, famine and population decline had a long time to work together.The central regions of the epidemic and environmental factors were cross-coupled, radially distributed around Lianshui County,Wuzhong District, Huai’an District, Changshu City and Peixian County, and the trend of the epidemic was inclined to the coastal areas. Conclusion: Environmental factors such as natural disasters and plague played a role in the compilation of WU You-ke’s Treatise on Epidemic Theory.