人口老龄化对产业结构升级的作用机理及区域差异研究

Research on the Influence Mechanism of Population Aging on Industrial Structural Upgrading and Regional Differences

我国经济高质量发展正面临着人口老龄化和产业结构升级的双重挑战。产业结构升级可分为服务化和技术化两个维度,基于2000—2019年全国30个省(市、自治区)面板数据,从理论机理和实证分析两方面,探讨人口老龄化通过生产环节和消费环节影响产业结构升级的区域异质性影响。研究表明:(1)总体来看,人口老龄化显著促进产业结构服务化和技术化,且通过劳动力规模、劳动力质量、居民消费水平及政府支出结构四个传导变量影响产业结构升级。(2)分区域来看,影响效应和影响路径在不同区域间存在明显差异性。(3)伴随经济发展水平、金融化水平和城镇化水平的提高,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响方向和强度会发生转变。

China’s high-quality economic development is facing double challenges of population aging and industrial structure upgrading.The upgrading of industrial structure can be perceived from two dimensions:service upgrading and technological upgrading.Based on the panel data from 30 provinces(cities,autonomous regions)across the country from the year 2000 to 2019,the influence of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure among different regions is analyzed in terms of production and consumption from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The results show:(1)Population aging significantly promotes the servitization and technologicalization of the industrial structure and influences the upgrading of the industrial structure through four intermediary variables:labor scale,labor quality,consumption level and government expenditure.(2)The impact and the ways of impact are significantly different among different regions.(3)With the deepened economic development,financialization and urbanization,the direction and intensity of the influence of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure will change accordingly.