时空视角下中国高铁网络脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis of high-speed rail network in China from spatial-temporal perspective

高铁网络已成为中国现代综合交通网络的重要组成部分,并对社会经济产生深远影响,保障其安全运行意义重大,分析和认识其脆弱性是确保其安全的重要步骤。结合复杂网络理论,运用Space-P模型,基于列车时刻表数据,从列车和高铁站点之间的时空关系出发,将中国高铁网络抽象为多重加权的时空网络,并从时间维度和空间维度分析其网络特征。从服务特征的视角,用高铁网络中高铁站点之间的可达时间和客流量作为其脆弱性的评价指标,从时间维度和空间维度解析我国高铁网络脆弱性的时空分布及其差异。研究结果表明:高铁网络在白天表现的脆弱性高于夜晚,在中东部表现的脆弱性高于西部。列车和高铁站在不同时间点中断时,高铁网络表现出不同的脆弱性。同一中断时间点下不同高铁站中断时,其表现的脆弱性也不同。特别是位于郑州、上海、南京和武汉的高铁站,无论白天何时中断都会使高铁网络表现出较高的脆弱性。表明从时-空双维度分析高铁网络的脆弱性具有必要性,也表明高铁网络脆弱性在时空维度上具备差异性。这为合理布局高铁网络运维资源,提高其韧性,提供了新思路。

High-speed rail network has become an important part of the modern integrated transportation network in China,which exerts a profound impact on the society and economy,and thus it is of great significance to ensure its safe operation.For ensuring its safe operation,its vulnerability should be first evaluated.Firstly,the Space-P model was utilized to describe the high-speed rail network in China's Mainland,based on the train timetable data and combined with complex network theory,in which the network was modeled as a multiple weighted and spatial-temporal network via the spatial-temporal relationships between high-speed trains and high speed rail stations.Then,the basic attributes of the network were analyzed from the perspective of the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension.Secondly,the accessible time and passenger flow between high-speed rail stations were selected as the indicators of the network’s vulnerability from the perspective of its service features.Afterwards,the vulnerability and its variations of the network in China's Mainland were investigated from the spatial-temporal perspective.The research findings show that the network in China's Mainland is more vulnerable in the daytime than that in the night,and the network located in central and eastern China is less vulnerable than that located in the west.Furthermore,the trains and stations interrupted at different times can result in different vulnerabilities of the network.The vulnerability of the network in China's Mainland is different when different stations are interrupted at the same time.Specially,the stations located in Zhengzhou,Shanghai,Nanjing,Wuhan interrupted at any time during the day always make the network exposure high vulnerability.The conclusions of these findings not only show the necessity of analyzing the vulnerability of high-speed rail network from the spatial-temporal perspective,but also indicate the spatial-temporal difference of the network’s vulnerability.This can provide new ideas for rationally deploying the operation and maintenance resources and improving the resilience of the network.