基于前景理论的高铁差异化定价优化方法

Differential pricing of high-speed railway passenger ticket based on prospect theory

由于高铁旅客出行需求具有典型的时变波动性,在高铁列车按照固定开行方案运营的条件下,会导致不同列车客流极不均衡和浪费运输能力。高铁客票价格是影响旅客出行选择行为的重要因素,但我国高铁票价决策的市场化程度低,尚不能有效发挥市场需求调节功能。为进一步释放高铁盈利能力,有必要深入研究科学合理的高铁差异化定价方法。利用前景理论分析旅客乘车选择行为的有限理性特征,通过细分高铁旅客市场和确定旅客期望出行成本的参照依赖点,以客票总收入最大化为目标,考虑列车运能、票价区间和票价不倒挂等约束,构建价格弹性需求下的高铁列车差异化定价模型,并基于模拟退火算法设计求解方法。以京沪高铁实际售票数据为例进行计算分析,优化后票价水平差异化明显,非高峰期票价变化幅度为[-16.4%,18.9%],通过实施差异化定价可以有效调节各起讫点高铁客流,在非高峰期和高峰期分别实现客票总收入增长10.41%和7.98%,而且旅客对高铁的正面感性认知每提高10%,可以进一步在非高峰期和高峰期增加高铁客票收益9%和3%以上。数据结果表明,合理的差异化定价策略可以实现提升收益和平衡客流的双重目标,提高旅客忠诚度可以显著提升差异化定价所得客票收益。

With the time-varying characteristics of high-speed railway demand,and the operation of the trains according to the fixed scheme,it will lead to the extremely unbalanced passenger flow of different trains and even the waste of transportation capacity.High speed railway ticket price is an important factor affecting passengers’travel choice behavior,but China’s high-speed railway ticket pricing has a low degree of marketization and can not effectively play the function of market demand regulation.In order to further release the profitability of high speed railway,it is necessary to study scientific and reasonable differential pricing methods for high-speed railway.This article considered the characteristics of bounded rationality,subdivided the high-speed rail passenger market according to the characteristics of passenger travel choice behavior,and determined the reference dependence point of passenger expected travel cost based on prospect theory.On this basis,this articletook the maximization of total ticket revenue as the goal,and considered the constraints such as train capacity,ticket price range and no upside-down ticket price,build a high-speed rail train differential pricing model under the demand of price elasticity.The solution method was designed based on simulated annealing algorithm.Taking the Beijing Shanghai high-speed railway as an example,the price fluctuation range during off peak periods was[-16.4%,18.9%]and differential pricing could effectively regulate passenger flow.The result show that the total ticket revenue can increase by 10.41%and 7.98%respectively in the off peak and peak periods by implementing differentiated pricing,and the revenue of high-speed railway can be effectively increased more than 9%and 3%respectively in the off peak and peak periods by each 10%increase in passengers’positive perception of high speed railway.The data results show that a reasonable differential pricing strategy can achieve the dual goals of increasing revenue and balancing passenger flow.Increasing passenger loyalty can significantly increase the ticket revenue under differential pricing.