黄河流域经济韧性与经济高质量发展研究

Research on Regional Economic Resilience and High-quality Economic Development in the Yellow River Basin

长期以来,受到自然条件和经济社会制度的制约,黄河流域的资源开发一直处于保护大于利用的状态,整个流域的经济发展潜力未得到充分的激发和利用。考虑到黄河流域庞大的人口规模,其生态安全屏障和资源能源集聚地作用显得更加重要,流域内抵御生态环境和经济社会等各方面冲击以及恢复到冲击前状态的能力即黄河流域的经济韧性由此成为黄河流域高质量发展的一个重要考量点。基于黄河流域39个地级市2010-2019年的面板数据,运用因子分析和耦合协调度方法研究区域经济韧性与经济高质量发展的水平和协同效应,采用格兰杰因果检验等探究区域经济韧性对经济高质量发展的影响机理。结论有:第一,所选取样本区域经济韧性水平正处于稳步持续上升的阶段;第二,10年间黄河流域经济韧性与经济高质量发展的耦合协调系数总体上处于稳步增长态势;第三,在经济发展过程中,短期内区域经济韧性单向显著促进了经济高质量发展,长期中两者互为因果;第四,就黄河流域的特殊性来看,其经济韧性对经济高质量发展的影响路径主要可以概括为区域经济韧性的抵抗力为经济高质量发展提供了重要的保护屏障,其恢复力为经济高质量发展提供了动能培育的基础,最后是其进化力的创新驱动作用。

For a long time,restricted by natural conditions and economic and social systems,the development of resources in the Yellow River Basin has been in a state of protection,more important than utilization,and the economic development potential of the entire basin has not been fully stimulated and utilized.Considering the large population of the Yellow River Basin,its role as an ecological security barrier and a gathering place for resources and energy is even more important.The ability of the basin to resist ecological,environmental,economic and social impacts and restore to the state before the impact is the regional economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin,which has thus become an important consideration for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The research is mainly based on the panel data of 39 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019,using factor analysis and coupling coordination degree methods,this paper studies the development level and synergistic effect of regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development;using models such as Granger Causality Test,it explores the impact mechanism of regional economic resilience on high-quality economic development.The conclusions are as follows:first,the regional economic resilience level of the selected sampling areas is in a stage of steady and continuous increase;second,the coupling coordination coefficient of regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin has generally been on a steady growth trend in the past ten years;third,in the long-term development,regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development are mutually causal,and in the short term,economic resilience significantly promotes high-quality economic development in one direction;fourth,the impact pathway of regional economic resilience on high-quality development can be mainly summarized as the resistance level of regional economic resilience provides an important protective barrier for high-quality economic development,and its resilience level provides the basis for cultivating growth drivers for high-quality economic development,and finally its evolutionary power plays a role of innovation driver.